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DMP:ASXDomino's Pizza Enterprises Limited Analysis

Data as of 2026-07-27 - not real-time

A$17.26

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Domino's Pizza Enterprises is trading just above its 20‑day SMA (17.26 vs 16.52) with a bullish MACD histogram (+0.05) and an RSI of 58, indicating modest upward momentum but still in a neutral trend zone. However, the DCF fair‑value of AUD 4.23 is dramatically lower than the current price, the company carries a heavy debt load (debt‑to‑equity ~181) and a payout ratio above 100%, raising concerns about dividend sustainability. Forward earnings look brighter – forward EPS of 1.34 and a forward PE of 12.8 suggest earnings growth, while analyst consensus targets imply ~18% upside to AUD 20.36.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish MACD and increasing volume support near‑term stability
  • Price approaching resistance at AUD 17.83
  • High debt and unsustainable dividend payout increase downside risk

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Forward PE of 12.8 indicates earnings expansion
  • Analyst target mean of AUD 20.36 suggests ~18% upside
  • Improving operating cash flow and franchise model resilience

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Heavy leverage (debt‑to‑equity ~181) could constrain growth
  • Dividend yield 2.69% but payout >100% questions sustainability
  • Diversified geographic footprint mitigates single‑market risk

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-5.50%
Profit Margin2.65%
P/E Ratio27.0
ROE9.07%
ROA3.92%
Debt/Equity180.99
P/B Ratio2.4
Op. Cash FlowA$173.0M
Free Cash FlowA$122.2M

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI58.3
SupportA$15.17
ResistanceA$17.83
MA 20A$16.52
MA 50A$16.48
MA 200A$18.81
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index88.09

Valuation

Fair ValueA$4.23
Target PriceA$20.36
Upside/Downside17.98%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.69%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.45
Volatility37.61%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.