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DECK:NYSEDeckers Outdoor Corporation Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-11 - not real-time

$105.26

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Deckers Outdoor (DECK) posted a solid Q3 earnings beat, delivering EPS of $3.33 versus $2.77 expected, and maintained robust operating margins above 30%. The company’s fundamentals remain strong with a high ROE near 40%, healthy cash generation and a DCF‑derived fair value roughly 22% above the current price, suggesting upside potential. Technically, the 20‑day SMA sits above the 50‑day SMA, indicating a bullish bias, while the RSI hovers in the low‑40s, hinting at room for price appreciation, though the MACD is currently bearish.
Valuation appears attractive given the DCF upside and modest PE around 15, but a high price‑to‑book and elevated 30‑day volatility (≈60%) temper enthusiasm. The stock trades near a solid support level and below a clear resistance ceiling, offering a balanced risk‑reward profile for investors willing to tolerate cyclical consumer‑goods exposure.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price approaching a near‑term support level
  • Recent earnings beat supports momentum
  • MACD bearish divergence suggests caution

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • DCF upside of ~22% and attractive PE
  • Strong operating margins and cash flow
  • Technical bullish bias with SMA crossover

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • High ROE and consistent revenue growth
  • Portfolio strength across UGG, HOKA, Teva brands
  • Resilient brand positioning despite cyclical sector

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth7.10%
Profit Margin19.35%
P/E Ratio15.0
ROE39.69%
ROA19.90%
Debt/Equity13.14
P/B Ratio5.7
Op. Cash Flow$1.0B
Free Cash Flow$758.7M

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI37.7
Support$99.93
Resistance$122.29
MA 20$114.27
MA 50$108.98
MA 200$103.80
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index76.91

Valuation

Fair Value$110.00
Target Price$128.52
Upside/Downside22.10%
GradeUndervalued
TypeGrowth

Risk Assessment

Beta1.25
Volatility59.74%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.