DECK:NYSEDeckers Outdoor Corporation Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-11 - not real-time
$105.26
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Deckers Outdoor (DECK) posted a solid Q3 earnings beat, delivering EPS of $3.33 versus $2.77 expected, and maintained robust operating margins above 30%. The company’s fundamentals remain strong with a high ROE near 40%, healthy cash generation and a DCF‑derived fair value roughly 22% above the current price, suggesting upside potential. Technically, the 20‑day SMA sits above the 50‑day SMA, indicating a bullish bias, while the RSI hovers in the low‑40s, hinting at room for price appreciation, though the MACD is currently bearish.
Valuation appears attractive given the DCF upside and modest PE around 15, but a high price‑to‑book and elevated 30‑day volatility (≈60%) temper enthusiasm. The stock trades near a solid support level and below a clear resistance ceiling, offering a balanced risk‑reward profile for investors willing to tolerate cyclical consumer‑goods exposure.
Valuation appears attractive given the DCF upside and modest PE around 15, but a high price‑to‑book and elevated 30‑day volatility (≈60%) temper enthusiasm. The stock trades near a solid support level and below a clear resistance ceiling, offering a balanced risk‑reward profile for investors willing to tolerate cyclical consumer‑goods exposure.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price approaching a near‑term support level
- Recent earnings beat supports momentum
- MACD bearish divergence suggests caution
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- DCF upside of ~22% and attractive PE
- Strong operating margins and cash flow
- Technical bullish bias with SMA crossover
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- High ROE and consistent revenue growth
- Portfolio strength across UGG, HOKA, Teva brands
- Resilient brand positioning despite cyclical sector
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth7.10%
Profit Margin19.35%
P/E Ratio15.0
ROE39.69%
ROA19.90%
Debt/Equity13.14
P/B Ratio5.7
Op. Cash Flow$1.0B
Free Cash Flow$758.7M
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI37.7
Support$99.93
Resistance$122.29
MA 20$114.27
MA 50$108.98
MA 200$103.80
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index76.91
Valuation
Fair Value$110.00
Target Price$128.52
Upside/Downside22.10%
GradeUndervalued
TypeGrowth
Risk Assessment
Beta1.25
Volatility59.74%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.