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DE:NYSEDeere & Company Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-09 - not real-time

$599.48

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Deere & Company is trading at $599.48, comfortably above its 50‑day SMA ($551.27) but below the 20‑day SMA ($615.98), indicating a short‑term price correction within a broader bullish framework. The RSI sits at 52, suggesting neutral momentum, while the MACD histogram is negative, flagging bearish pressure on the immediate horizon. Price action hovers near the identified support level of $574.30, with resistance at $674.19, and recent volume trends are decreasing, which could limit upside in the next few weeks. Fundamentally, the company posted 13% revenue growth, a solid 10.3% profit margin, and generated $4.2 bn of free cash flow, supporting its dividend at a 1.1% yield with a modest 36% payout ratio. Analyst sentiment remains positive, with a consensus “Buy” and a median target price of $675, implying roughly 11% upside from current levels. However, the DCF fair value of $157 signals that the stock is significantly overvalued relative to intrinsic estimates, a gap reflected in its forward PE of 25.9 versus the industry average of 29.5. The balance sheet shows a high debt‑to‑equity ratio (>200), but ample cash reserves and strong operating cash flow mitigate immediate solvency concerns.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price near technical support at $574.30
  • Bearish MACD histogram indicating short‑term downside pressure
  • Decreasing volume trend limiting upward momentum

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • 13% year‑over‑year revenue growth and strong free cash flow
  • Analyst consensus “Buy” with median target price of $675 (+11% upside)
  • Stable dividend payout and moderate payout ratio supporting income investors

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Significant overvaluation relative to DCF fair value
  • Robust market position in precision agriculture and construction equipment
  • Sustainable dividend and solid ROE (~20%) indicating durable profitability

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth13.00%
Profit Margin10.30%
P/E Ratio33.8
ROE19.57%
ROA3.96%
Debt/Equity239.63
P/B Ratio6.2
Op. Cash Flow$7.7B
Free Cash Flow$4.2B
Industry P/E29.5

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI52.0
Support$574.30
Resistance$674.19
MA 20$615.98
MA 50$551.27
MA 200$503.40
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index75.89

Valuation

Fair Value$157.04
Target Price$665.79
Upside/Downside11.06%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.10%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.76
Volatility42.59%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.