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DB1:XETRDeutsche Boerse AG Analysis

Data as of 2026-07-16 - not real-time

€256.90

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Deutsche Börse is trading at €256.9, comfortably above its 20‑day (€248.35) and 50‑day (€248.37) simple moving averages, signalling short‑term bullish momentum. The 14‑day RSI sits at 59.4, indicating the stock is not yet overbought. A bullish MACD (line = 2.63 above signal = 1.35) and a positive histogram further reinforce upward bias. Volume is on an increasing trend, adding confirmation to the price advance toward the near‑term resistance of €260.9. Despite the strength, the 30‑day volatility of 19.3% and a recent max drawdown of 23.8% remind investors of the inherent price swings.
On the valuation side, the trailing PE of 22.9 exceeds the industry average of 17.9, while the forward PE of 19.3 suggests earnings are expected to improve. The price‑to‑book ratio of 4.46 and a price‑to‑sales of 6.21 also sit on the higher side, implying the market already rewards the company’s premium margins. Nevertheless, revenue growth of 8.5% and an operating margin of 43.6% deliver strong profitability, and a dividend yield of 1.63% with a 35.6% payout ratio appears sustainable. Analyst consensus (12 analysts) is “buy” with a median target of €297.5, translating to roughly 15% upside and an Extreme Greed sentiment index of 92.16. Overall, the blend of solid fundamentals, defensive cash‑flow profile, and modest upside makes DB1 a compelling buy for the short, medium and long horizons.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Positive MACD crossover and price above 20/50 SMA indicating short‑term momentum
  • Rising volume supporting the move toward the near‑term resistance at €260.9
  • Valuation still near historical range with upside potential but caution due to elevated PE

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Revenue growth of 8.5% and operating margin >43% driving earnings expansion
  • Forward PE of 19.3 suggests earnings improvement and price re‑rating
  • Analyst consensus with median target €297.5 implying ~15% upside

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • Diversified segments (trading, clearing, data services) provide stable, recurring cash flows
  • Dividend yield 1.63% with payout ratio ~36% supports sustainability
  • Low market beta and defensive positioning reduce sensitivity to broader equity cycles

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth8.50%
Profit Margin27.26%
P/E Ratio22.9
ROE19.20%
ROA0.65%
Debt/Equity65.44
P/B Ratio4.5
Industry P/E17.9

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI59.4
Support€235.30
Resistance€260.90
MA 20€248.35
MA 50€248.37
MA 200€233.36
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index92.16

Valuation

Target Price€286.83
Upside/Downside11.65%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.63%

Risk Assessment

Beta-0.30
Volatility19.28%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.