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DAL:NYSEDelta Air Lines, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-19 - not real-time

$67.76

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Delta Air Lines trades around $67.76, well below its DCF fair value of $79.56 and a P/E of 9.9 versus the industry average of 29, indicating a substantial discount. Technical indicators show the stock sitting under the 20‑day SMA (69.79) but just above the 50‑day SMA (67.48), with a bullish trend direction yet a bearish MACD histogram and decreasing volume, suggesting short‑term consolidation. The RSI of 43 points to neutral momentum, while the support level at $65.82 provides a cushion against further downside. Recent news adds momentum: Berkshire Hathaway’s $2.65 billion stake and an analyst upgrade to $85 target highlight renewed confidence, and Q1 results beat revenue and margin expectations despite higher fuel costs. Fundamentally, DAL delivers a 12.9% revenue growth, 6.87% profit margin, strong operating cash flow of $8.4 bn, and a low payout ratio of 10.4%, supporting dividend sustainability. The company’s beta of 1.9 and 30‑day volatility of 35.8% signal heightened market sensitivity, while its max drawdown of –23% underscores downside risk. However, an upside potential of ~18% to the DCF level and a strong ROE of 25% suggest attractive returns for patient investors. Overall, the blend of undervaluation, solid cash generation, and positive institutional sentiment makes DAL a compelling buy at current levels, with the caveat of industry‑specific volatility.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Berkshire Hathaway’s new stake adds credibility but price is near short‑term support
  • Bearish MACD and decreasing volume suggest limited upside in the next few weeks
  • Technical support at $65.82 and neutral RSI provide downside protection

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Undervaluation relative to peers (P/E 9.9 vs industry 29) and DCF upside ~18%
  • Strong cash flow generation and low dividend payout ratio support earnings growth
  • Analyst upgrades and positive institutional ownership signal improving sentiment

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • Sustainable dividend backed by solid free cash flow and low payout ratio
  • Strategic focus on premium cabins and corporate travel drives long‑term revenue growth
  • Robust ROE (25%) and resilient brand position in the airline industry

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth12.90%
Profit Margin6.87%
P/E Ratio9.9
ROE24.99%
ROA4.34%
Debt/Equity105.02
P/B Ratio2.2
Op. Cash Flow$8.4B
Free Cash Flow$3.1B
Industry P/E29.2

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI43.7
Support$65.82
Resistance$74.97
MA 20$69.79
MA 50$67.48
MA 200$64.38
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.18

Valuation

Fair Value$79.56
Target Price$80.09
Upside/Downside18.20%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.07%

Risk Assessment

Beta1.91
Volatility35.82%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.