DAL:NYSEDelta Air Lines, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-19 - not real-time
$67.76
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Delta Air Lines trades around $67.76, well below its DCF fair value of $79.56 and a P/E of 9.9 versus the industry average of 29, indicating a substantial discount. Technical indicators show the stock sitting under the 20‑day SMA (69.79) but just above the 50‑day SMA (67.48), with a bullish trend direction yet a bearish MACD histogram and decreasing volume, suggesting short‑term consolidation. The RSI of 43 points to neutral momentum, while the support level at $65.82 provides a cushion against further downside. Recent news adds momentum: Berkshire Hathaway’s $2.65 billion stake and an analyst upgrade to $85 target highlight renewed confidence, and Q1 results beat revenue and margin expectations despite higher fuel costs. Fundamentally, DAL delivers a 12.9% revenue growth, 6.87% profit margin, strong operating cash flow of $8.4 bn, and a low payout ratio of 10.4%, supporting dividend sustainability. The company’s beta of 1.9 and 30‑day volatility of 35.8% signal heightened market sensitivity, while its max drawdown of –23% underscores downside risk. However, an upside potential of ~18% to the DCF level and a strong ROE of 25% suggest attractive returns for patient investors. Overall, the blend of undervaluation, solid cash generation, and positive institutional sentiment makes DAL a compelling buy at current levels, with the caveat of industry‑specific volatility.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Berkshire Hathaway’s new stake adds credibility but price is near short‑term support
- Bearish MACD and decreasing volume suggest limited upside in the next few weeks
- Technical support at $65.82 and neutral RSI provide downside protection
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Undervaluation relative to peers (P/E 9.9 vs industry 29) and DCF upside ~18%
- Strong cash flow generation and low dividend payout ratio support earnings growth
- Analyst upgrades and positive institutional ownership signal improving sentiment
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 9/10
Key Factors
- Sustainable dividend backed by solid free cash flow and low payout ratio
- Strategic focus on premium cabins and corporate travel drives long‑term revenue growth
- Robust ROE (25%) and resilient brand position in the airline industry
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth12.90%
Profit Margin6.87%
P/E Ratio9.9
ROE24.99%
ROA4.34%
Debt/Equity105.02
P/B Ratio2.2
Op. Cash Flow$8.4B
Free Cash Flow$3.1B
Industry P/E29.2
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI43.7
Support$65.82
Resistance$74.97
MA 20$69.79
MA 50$67.48
MA 200$64.38
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.18
Valuation
Fair Value$79.56
Target Price$80.09
Upside/Downside18.20%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.07%
Risk Assessment
Beta1.91
Volatility35.82%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.