CVX:NYSEChevron Corporation Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-09 - not real-time
$190.55
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Technical outlook is broadly bullish – the stock trades above its short‑term, mid‑term and long‑term moving averages, volume is on the rise and the beta is comfortably below one, suggesting lower market‑wide volatility. Momentum indicators are mixed: the relative strength index sits in the upper range, hinting at continued buying pressure, while the MACD has turned bearish, warning of a possible short‑term pullback. The price is perched near its annual high, and recent analyst upgrades and a higher dividend payout have added fresh optimism.
On the fundamentals side, valuation appears stretched as the market price far exceeds the discounted‑cash‑flow estimate and the price‑to‑earnings multiple sits well above the sector average. Cash generation remains robust, supporting a generous dividend that has been raised, yet the payout ratio exceeds one, raising questions about long‑term sustainability. The Hess acquisition expands exposure to Guyana, offering upside potential, but regulatory and climate‑transition risks linger for the integrated energy business.
On the fundamentals side, valuation appears stretched as the market price far exceeds the discounted‑cash‑flow estimate and the price‑to‑earnings multiple sits well above the sector average. Cash generation remains robust, supporting a generous dividend that has been raised, yet the payout ratio exceeds one, raising questions about long‑term sustainability. The Hess acquisition expands exposure to Guyana, offering upside potential, but regulatory and climate‑transition risks linger for the integrated energy business.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price above all major moving averages
- Increasing trading volume
- Bearish MACD divergence
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Strong operating and free cash flow
- Higher dividend and recent payout increase
- Growth catalyst from the Guyana acquisition
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Valuation gap versus DCF fair value
- Unsustainable dividend payout ratio
- Elevated regulatory and climate‑transition risk
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-8.20%
Profit Margin6.66%
P/E Ratio28.7
ROE7.23%
ROA3.79%
Debt/Equity24.32
P/B Ratio2.0
Op. Cash Flow$33.9B
Free Cash Flow$13.2B
Industry P/E20.7
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI68.1
Support$178.74
Resistance$192.41
MA 20$185.51
MA 50$173.17
MA 200$156.93
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index100
Valuation
Fair Value$71.31
Target Price$185.92
Upside/Downside-2.43%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield3.75%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.67
Volatility20.19%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
Similar Tickers
This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.