CVNA:NYSECarvana Co. Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-10 - not real-time
$328.26
Latest Price
8/10Risk
Risk Level: High
Executive Summary
Carvana (CVNA) trades well above its discounted cash‑flow estimate, indicating significant overvaluation despite robust revenue growth and an impressive return on equity. Technical signals are mixed: price sits below short‑ and long‑term moving averages, RSI hovers in neutral territory, while MACD shows a modest bullish histogram. Recent news highlights rising short‑interest and pressure from earnings, adding downside risk in the near term, but analysts maintain a buy consensus with high price targets, reflecting confidence in the company’s scale‑up strategy.
Overall, the stock faces high market volatility and sector cyclicality, yet its growth trajectory and strategic initiatives could reward patient investors over a longer horizon.
Overall, the stock faces high market volatility and sector cyclicality, yet its growth trajectory and strategic initiatives could reward patient investors over a longer horizon.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearCautious
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Current price far exceeds DCF fair value
- High beta and volatility amplify downside risk
- Rising short‑interest adds pressure
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Sustained revenue growth and improving operating margins
- Analyst consensus remains bullish with elevated price targets
- Debt load remains high but manageable relative to cash generation
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Leadership in the online used‑car market and national scale‑up plans
- Strong ROE and ROA indicating efficient capital use
- Long‑term secular demand for convenient vehicle purchasing
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth58.00%
Profit Margin6.92%
P/E Ratio38.9
ROE67.95%
ROA10.86%
Debt/Equity133.12
P/B Ratio13.6
Op. Cash Flow$1.0B
Free Cash Flow$249.9M
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI41.1
Support$299.30
Resistance$419.85
MA 20$342.25
MA 50$399.41
MA 200$365.66
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index75.89
Valuation
Fair Value$30.65
Target Price$428.50
Upside/Downside30.54%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Risk Assessment
Beta2.34
Volatility74.89%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.