CSX:NASDAQ

CSX Corporation

Data as of 2026-03-10 - not real-time

$40.60

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

CSX is trading at $40.6, just above its 20‑day SMA of $41.66 and comfortably above the 50‑day SMA of $38.80, indicating a short‑term bullish bias despite a recent earnings miss (Q4 EPS $0.39 vs. $0.411 estimate). The RSI sits near 49, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions, while the MACD histogram is negative, flagging lingering bearish momentum. Support sits at $39.33 and resistance at $43.35, giving the stock a modest upside potential of roughly 0.5% and a clear technical range.
Fundamentally, CSX trades at a trailing P/E of 26.4 versus an industry average of 29.5 and a forward P/E of 19.5, implying relative undervaluation. The company generates solid operating margins (32.7%) and a healthy free cash flow stream (~$970 M), supporting a 1.4% dividend yield with a payout ratio of 34%—well within sustainable limits. Debt is high (D/E ≈ 148), but cash flow coverage remains comfortable, and a recent $670 M fleet upgrade with Wabtec signals continued investment in growth.

Trading Recommendations

Short Term

< 1 year
hold
Conviction: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Recent earnings miss creates short‑term uncertainty
  • Bullish SMA crossover supports near‑term stability
  • Support level at $39.33 provides downside cushion

Medium Term

1–3 years
buy
Conviction: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Undervalued relative to peers with attractive forward P/E
  • Sustainable dividend and strong free cash flow
  • Technical trend remains bullish with price above key averages

Long Term

> 3 years
buy
Conviction: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Long‑run demand for rail freight and intermodal services
  • Strategic fleet upgrade enhancing operational efficiency
  • Stable dividend yield and solid return on equity

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-0.90%
Profit Margin20.50%
P/E Ratio26.4
ROE22.51%
ROA6.86%
Debt/Equity148.22
P/B Ratio5.7
Op. Cash Flow$4.6B
Free Cash Flow$970.5M
Industry P/E29.5

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI48.8
Support$39.33
Resistance$43.35
MA 20$41.66
MA 50$38.80
MA 200$35.48
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index75.89

Valuation

Target Price$40.81
Upside/Downside0.52%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.40%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.75
Volatility22.37%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies. Not financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.