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CSWC:NASDAQCapital Southwest Corporation Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-27 - not real-time

$21.82

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Capital Southwest Corporation trades around the 20‑day simple moving average, which sits just below the 50‑day SMA, indicating a modestly neutral technical stance. The 14‑day RSI is in the mid‑40s, suggesting limited momentum and no immediate overbought or oversold pressure. A bullish MACD histogram confirms a slight upside bias, while the price hovers near a key support level around $21.17. The stock’s forward P/E of under 10 and a DCF‑derived fair value roughly 11% above the current price point signal an undervalued position relative to peers. However, the dividend payout ratio exceeds 150%, raising concerns about the sustainability of the 11.7% yield.
Recent news of a $100 million joint venture with Trinity Capital to target senior secured debt in the lower‑middle market adds a catalyst for pipeline growth and could improve cash flow generation. The firm’s revenue growth of 18% and strong operating margins underscore solid fundamentals, but decreasing volume and a beta below 1 suggest modest market sensitivity. Overall, the combination of attractive valuation, high yield, and strategic partnership supports a favorable outlook, tempered by dividend sustainability and liquidity considerations.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • price near technical support
  • high dividend yield with elevated payout
  • neutral RSI and bullish MACD signal

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • undervalued DCF fair value
  • 18% revenue growth and strong operating margins
  • joint venture expanding deal flow

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • potential for improved cash generation to support dividend
  • stable asset‑management business model in lower‑middle market
  • long‑term valuation upside relative to industry peers

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth18.20%
Profit Margin45.46%
P/E Ratio12.1
ROE11.29%
ROA6.22%
Debt/Equity108.23
P/B Ratio1.3
Op. Cash Flow$-193092992
Free Cash Flow$87.0M
Industry P/E16.4

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI44.4
Support$21.17
Resistance$22.95
MA 20$22.00
MA 50$22.68
MA 200$22.11
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.07

Valuation

Fair Value$24.04
Target Price$24.40
Upside/Downside11.82%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield11.74%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.87
Volatility22.46%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.