CSTM:NYSEConstellium SE Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-27 - not real-time
$23.95
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Constellium’s stock is trading above its longer‑term moving averages, reinforcing a bullish bias, yet the MACD histogram remains in negative territory and volume has been tapering, suggesting short‑term weakness near the identified support zone. The RSI sits around the midpoint, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions, while the market sentiment indexes are in a greed phase, adding speculative pressure.
Fundamentally, the company is delivering robust top‑line growth and an impressive return on equity, supported by a strong analyst consensus and a new $300 million share repurchase program that could bolster price stability. However, the balance sheet is heavily leveraged, debt levels dwarf cash reserves, and the discounted cash‑flow model places intrinsic value well below the current market price, flagging an overvaluation concern despite the upside potential highlighted by analyst price targets.
Fundamentally, the company is delivering robust top‑line growth and an impressive return on equity, supported by a strong analyst consensus and a new $300 million share repurchase program that could bolster price stability. However, the balance sheet is heavily leveraged, debt levels dwarf cash reserves, and the discounted cash‑flow model places intrinsic value well below the current market price, flagging an overvaluation concern despite the upside potential highlighted by analyst price targets.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Bearish MACD momentum
- Proximity to technical support
- Elevated short‑term volatility
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Strong revenue growth and high ROE
- Analyst price targets indicating upside
- New share repurchase program supporting demand
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- High leverage relative to cash
- Cyclical exposure of the aluminum sector
- Sustained earnings growth potential
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth27.90%
Profit Margin3.23%
P/E Ratio12.5
ROE32.39%
ROA5.96%
Debt/Equity212.46
P/B Ratio3.4
Op. Cash Flow$489.0M
Free Cash Flow$96.8M
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI47.0
Support$22.03
Resistance$27.41
MA 20$24.94
MA 50$24.32
MA 200$17.73
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.05
Valuation
Fair Value$11.83
Target Price$28.48
Upside/Downside18.93%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Risk Assessment
Beta1.70
Volatility59.19%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.