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COST:NASDAQCostco Wholesale Corporation Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-09 - not real-time

$1,001.41

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Costco’s shares are firmly above the 20‑day, 50‑day and 200‑day moving averages, confirming a bullish price direction, while the RSI sits in the mid‑50s indicating neutral momentum. The MACD has turned bearish with a negative histogram, suggesting short‑term pressure as price approaches a key resistance near the recent high, with support anchored just above the 960 level.
Fundamentally, the retailer posted a 9% year‑over‑year revenue rise and beat earnings expectations, driven by its membership model and price‑cut initiatives linked to tariff refunds. Strong operating cash flow, a modest debt load and a low 27% payout ratio keep the dividend sustainable, but an elevated PE and a market price far above the DCF fair value point to significant overvaluation. Recent news of price reductions and a quarterly beat reinforce the near‑term momentum but also highlight the premium the market is assigning to growth expectations.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price above major moving averages supports bullish bias
  • MACD bearish divergence warns of near‑term pullback
  • Support level near 960 provides downside cushion

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Consistent double‑digit revenue growth and strong cash generation
  • Low payout ratio and stable dividend enhance total return
  • Defensive consumer‑discretionary positioning limits cyclical exposure

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Durable membership model with high member retention
  • Elevated valuation relative to DCF suggests price correction risk
  • Broad international footprint diversifies revenue streams

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth9.20%
Profit Margin2.99%
P/E Ratio53.7
ROE29.65%
ROA8.72%
Debt/Equity25.45
P/B Ratio13.8
Op. Cash Flow$15.0B
Free Cash Flow$6.9B

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI55.6
Support$960.46
Resistance$1,028.44
MA 20$996.08
MA 50$959.69
MA 200$950.89
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index100

Valuation

Fair Value$339.77
Target Price$1,065.28
Upside/Downside6.38%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield0.52%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.43
Volatility21.61%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.