COST:NASDAQCostco Wholesale Corporation Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-09 - not real-time
$1,001.41
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Costco’s shares are firmly above the 20‑day, 50‑day and 200‑day moving averages, confirming a bullish price direction, while the RSI sits in the mid‑50s indicating neutral momentum. The MACD has turned bearish with a negative histogram, suggesting short‑term pressure as price approaches a key resistance near the recent high, with support anchored just above the 960 level.
Fundamentally, the retailer posted a 9% year‑over‑year revenue rise and beat earnings expectations, driven by its membership model and price‑cut initiatives linked to tariff refunds. Strong operating cash flow, a modest debt load and a low 27% payout ratio keep the dividend sustainable, but an elevated PE and a market price far above the DCF fair value point to significant overvaluation. Recent news of price reductions and a quarterly beat reinforce the near‑term momentum but also highlight the premium the market is assigning to growth expectations.
Fundamentally, the retailer posted a 9% year‑over‑year revenue rise and beat earnings expectations, driven by its membership model and price‑cut initiatives linked to tariff refunds. Strong operating cash flow, a modest debt load and a low 27% payout ratio keep the dividend sustainable, but an elevated PE and a market price far above the DCF fair value point to significant overvaluation. Recent news of price reductions and a quarterly beat reinforce the near‑term momentum but also highlight the premium the market is assigning to growth expectations.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price above major moving averages supports bullish bias
- MACD bearish divergence warns of near‑term pullback
- Support level near 960 provides downside cushion
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Consistent double‑digit revenue growth and strong cash generation
- Low payout ratio and stable dividend enhance total return
- Defensive consumer‑discretionary positioning limits cyclical exposure
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Durable membership model with high member retention
- Elevated valuation relative to DCF suggests price correction risk
- Broad international footprint diversifies revenue streams
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth9.20%
Profit Margin2.99%
P/E Ratio53.7
ROE29.65%
ROA8.72%
Debt/Equity25.45
P/B Ratio13.8
Op. Cash Flow$15.0B
Free Cash Flow$6.9B
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI55.6
Support$960.46
Resistance$1,028.44
MA 20$996.08
MA 50$959.69
MA 200$950.89
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index100
Valuation
Fair Value$339.77
Target Price$1,065.28
Upside/Downside6.38%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield0.52%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.43
Volatility21.61%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.