CG:NASDAQThe Carlyle Group Inc. Analysis

The stock is trading at $46.10, well below its 20‑day SMA of 51.06, 50‑day SMA of 57.15 and 200‑day SMA of 57.58, indicating a persistent bearish trend. The RSI of 31.4 suggests the shares are approaching oversold territory, while the MACD line sits at –2.80 below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum. Volume is on an increasing trend, which often precedes a sharper move, and the price is hovering just above the identified support level of 44.83 with resistance near 55.65. Volatility is exceptionally high at over 52% 30‑day and beta exceeds 1.7, underscoring the stock’s sensitivity to market swings. Despite the technical weakness, the company reported a record fee‑related earnings of $1.24 billion in 2025 and revenue growth of roughly 94% year‑over‑year, delivering a profit margin of 20% and operating margin above 30%. Forward earnings are projected at $5.46 per share, driving the forward P/E down to 8.45, far below the current trailing P/E of 25.9 and the industry average of 16.4. The dividend yield of 3.09% with a payout ratio near 79% adds income appeal, but the negative operating cash flow and a debt‑to‑equity ratio above 190% raise sustainability concerns.
Analyst consensus is a “buy” with a median target of $67, implying upside of roughly 46%, yet the combination of high leverage, weak cash generation, and a bearish technical backdrop suggests caution. Investors should weigh the strong top‑line momentum and attractive forward valuation against the elevated risk profile before deciding on exposure.