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BRAV3:BMFBOVESPABrava Energia SA Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-15 - not real-time

R$17.91

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

BRAV3 is trading well below its intrinsic estimate, with the market price comfortably under the discounted cash flow fair value, suggesting a sizable margin of safety. The stock sits above its 20‑day and 50‑day moving averages, which are themselves above the 200‑day average, confirming a bullish technical backdrop, while volume is on the rise, reinforcing momentum. However, the MACD histogram is negative and the RSI hovers in neutral territory, indicating that short‑term upside may be tempered.
Fundamentally, revenue is expanding at a robust pace and operating margins are strong, but the balance sheet is heavily leveraged and free cash flow remains negative. The valuation multiples are attractive relative to industry peers, and the forward earnings outlook is markedly better than the trailing figures, supporting a longer‑term upside narrative despite the debt burden.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish alignment of short‑term moving averages
  • Increasing trading volume supporting momentum
  • Neutral RSI and bearish MACD histogram limiting upside

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Significant undervaluation versus DCF fair value
  • Strong revenue growth and healthy operating margins
  • Attractive price multiples relative to industry peers

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • High leverage and negative free cash flow pose balance‑sheet risk
  • Long‑term upside tied to oil & gas price cycles and sector dynamics
  • Sustained valuation cushion provides margin of safety

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth39.40%
Profit Margin8.80%
P/E Ratio15.6
ROE8.21%
ROA5.26%
Debt/Equity158.15
P/B Ratio0.7
Op. Cash FlowR$4.1B
Free Cash FlowR$-1670061056
Industry P/E22.2

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI43.3
SupportR$17.23
ResistanceR$20.46
MA 20R$18.71
MA 50R$18.05
MA 200R$17.53
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.88

Valuation

Fair ValueR$200.08
Target PriceR$22.67
Upside/Downside26.56%
GradeUndervalued
TypeGrowth

Risk Assessment

Beta0.57
Volatility36.61%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.