BPE:MIL

BPER Banca S.p.A.

Data as of 2026-03-11 - not real-time

€11.29

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

BPER Banca trades at a forward P/E of 10.36, well below the sector average of 17.28, suggesting a clear valuation gap. The bank delivers robust profitability with an operating margin of 50.8% and a ROE of 12.9%, while revenue surged 36.9% YoY in FY2025. A dividend yield of 10.21% and a payout ratio near 64% provide attractive income, supported by a strong cash position of €13.4 bn against €28.4 bn of debt. Technicals are mixed: the 20‑day SMA (11.76) sits just above the current price (11.29) and the MACD is bearish, with RSI at 44 indicating neutral momentum; price remains above the key support of 10.19 but below resistance at 12.81. Volatility is elevated at 41.6%**30‑day** while beta is modest at 0.58, reflecting limited market‑wide risk. The market sentiment index shows “Extreme Greed,” and analysts project a potential upside of 21.2% versus downside risk of –24.6%. Overall, the stock appears undervalued with solid fundamentals and a generous dividend, but short‑term price pressure and bearish momentum temper immediate upside expectations.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price near support with bearish MACD
  • Neutral RSI indicating limited upside momentum
  • High dividend yield provides cushion

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Undervalued relative to peers (P/E gap)
  • Strong earnings growth and profitability
  • Sustainable high dividend yield

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Consistent cash generation and low leverage
  • Attractive dividend yield with reasonable payout ratio
  • Fundamental upside potential despite short‑term volatility

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth36.90%
Profit Margin30.63%
P/E Ratio10.4
ROE12.90%
ROA1.09%
P/B Ratio1.3
Industry P/E17.3

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI44.2
Support€10.19
Resistance€12.81
MA 20€11.76
MA 50€11.92
MA 200€9.81
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index76.91

Valuation

Target Price€13.68
Upside/Downside21.19%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield10.21%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.58
Volatility41.59%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.