BPE:MIL
BPER Banca S.p.A.
Data as of 2026-03-11 - not real-time
€11.29
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
BPER Banca trades at a forward P/E of 10.36, well below the sector average of 17.28, suggesting a clear valuation gap. The bank delivers robust profitability with an operating margin of 50.8% and a ROE of 12.9%, while revenue surged 36.9% YoY in FY2025. A dividend yield of 10.21% and a payout ratio near 64% provide attractive income, supported by a strong cash position of €13.4 bn against €28.4 bn of debt. Technicals are mixed: the 20‑day SMA (11.76) sits just above the current price (11.29) and the MACD is bearish, with RSI at 44 indicating neutral momentum; price remains above the key support of 10.19 but below resistance at 12.81. Volatility is elevated at 41.6%**30‑day** while beta is modest at 0.58, reflecting limited market‑wide risk. The market sentiment index shows “Extreme Greed,” and analysts project a potential upside of 21.2% versus downside risk of –24.6%. Overall, the stock appears undervalued with solid fundamentals and a generous dividend, but short‑term price pressure and bearish momentum temper immediate upside expectations.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price near support with bearish MACD
- Neutral RSI indicating limited upside momentum
- High dividend yield provides cushion
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Undervalued relative to peers (P/E gap)
- Strong earnings growth and profitability
- Sustainable high dividend yield
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Consistent cash generation and low leverage
- Attractive dividend yield with reasonable payout ratio
- Fundamental upside potential despite short‑term volatility
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth36.90%
Profit Margin30.63%
P/E Ratio10.4
ROE12.90%
ROA1.09%
P/B Ratio1.3
Industry P/E17.3
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI44.2
Support€10.19
Resistance€12.81
MA 20€11.76
MA 50€11.92
MA 200€9.81
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index76.91
Valuation
Target Price€13.68
Upside/Downside21.19%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield10.21%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.58
Volatility41.59%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.