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BLDR:NYSEBuilders FirstSource, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-13 - not real-time

$88.09

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Builders FirstSource is trading well below its long‑term moving averages (20‑day, 50‑day and 200‑day SMAs) and the RSI sits in the deep‑oversold region, signaling a technically bearish environment. The MACD line remains under its signal, the histogram is negative, and despite a recent increase in volume, price action has been constrained by a 46% 30‑day volatility and a beta above 1, indicating heightened market sensitivity. Fundamentally, the company posted a 12% YoY revenue decline and missed Q4 earnings expectations, though full‑year revenue guidance nudged above consensus and analysts have upgraded the outlook, with a median price target around $125 suggesting notable upside from the current $88 level. Strategic investments in digital capabilities and supply‑chain efficiencies are highlighted in management commentary, offering a potential catalyst for a mid‑term recovery.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Cautious
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Technical indicators show oversold conditions and bearish momentum
  • Recent earnings miss and revenue contraction
  • High short‑term volatility

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Guidance above consensus and analyst upgrade to Outperform
  • Strategic digital and supply‑chain initiatives
  • Potential bounce from support near $86

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Industry‑leading market position in building‑materials distribution
  • Valuation gap between current price and analyst price targets
  • Long‑term growth prospects from modular home and digital service segments

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-12.10%
Profit Margin2.86%
P/E Ratio22.6
ROE10.06%
ROA4.50%
Debt/Equity117.19
P/B Ratio2.2
Op. Cash Flow$1.2B
Free Cash Flow$623.8M
Industry P/E29.1

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI27.2
Support$86.18
Resistance$122.70
MA 20$101.48
MA 50$112.19
MA 200$118.91
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.88

Valuation

Fair Value$32.13
Target Price$127.29
Upside/Downside44.50%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue

Risk Assessment

Beta1.09
Volatility46.39%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.