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BC8:XETRBechtle AG Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-12 - not real-time

€32.68

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Bechtle AG is trading at €32.68, comfortably below its 20‑day SMA of €32.94 and far under the 50‑day and 200‑day averages (~€38.8), indicating a short‑term price weakness but also a potential re‑entry point. The RSI of 35 suggests the stock is approaching oversold territory, while the MACD line sits above its signal line, producing a modest bullish histogram – a technical mix that favors a tentative bounce toward the nearby resistance at €34.90.
Fundamentally, the company appears undervalued: its trailing PE of 19 is well under the industry average of 34.6, and the DCF‑derived fair value of €33.75 implies roughly a 3% discount to current price with an upside potential of over 30% when considering the broader upside/downside metric. Revenue is growing at 5% YoY, margins remain modest but stable, and a 2.15% dividend yield backed by a 40% payout ratio signals sustainable cash returns. Low beta (~0.27) and a 44% 30‑day volatility profile suggest limited market‑wide correlation but heightened price swings, while decreasing volume points to a potential liquidity pinch.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price near support at €31.86 with RSI indicating oversold conditions
  • Bullish MACD histogram despite overall neutral trend
  • Decreasing volume raising short‑term liquidity concerns

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Undervaluation relative to peers (PE 19 vs industry 34.6)
  • Upside potential of ~30% from DCF fair value and analyst targets
  • Sustainable dividend yield of 2.15% with a 40% payout ratio

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Stable cash generation (operating cash flow €418M, free cash flow €260M)
  • Low market beta indicating defensive characteristics
  • Consistent revenue growth and solid ROE (~11%) supporting long‑term earnings

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth5.10%
Profit Margin3.39%
P/E Ratio19.1
ROE11.24%
ROA4.90%
Debt/Equity37.45
P/B Ratio2.1
Op. Cash Flow€417.8M
Free Cash Flow€260.0M
Industry P/E34.6

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI35.1
Support€31.86
Resistance€34.90
MA 20€32.94
MA 50€38.80
MA 200€38.73
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index78.16

Valuation

Fair Value€33.75
Target Price€44.96
Upside/Downside37.57%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.15%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.27
Volatility44.23%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.