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BAX:NYSEBaxter International Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-14 - not real-time

$17.40

Latest Price

8/10Risk

Risk Level: High

Executive Summary

Baxter International is trading at $17.4, well below its 20‑day ($19.58) and 50‑day ($19.99) moving averages, with a 30‑day RSI of 34 and a bearish MACD divergence, indicating short‑term oversold conditions but a prevailing downtrend. The stock sits near a $17 support level and faces resistance around $22.08, while volatility is elevated at 68% and beta exceeds 1, underscoring heightened price swings. Fundamentally, the company posted negative earnings (trailing EPS –$1.75) and a profit margin of –8.5%, yet the forward PE of 8.46 is dramatically lower than the industry average of 26.2, and the DCF‑derived fair value of $75.2 suggests a theoretical upside of roughly 24% if the model holds. However, the balance sheet is strained with a debt‑to‑equity ratio above 160% and a dividend payout ratio exceeding 300%, casting doubt on dividend sustainability. Recent news highlights robust Q4 sales growth but a sharp earnings miss and declining margins, reinforcing the mixed near‑term outlook.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price near technical support with bearish momentum
  • Recent earnings miss and negative profit margin
  • Unsustainable dividend payout

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Potential margin recovery from sales growth
  • Valuation gap versus industry peers
  • High leverage requiring debt reduction

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Fundamental undervaluation (forward PE vs industry)
  • Long‑term demand for medical devices and therapies
  • DCF upside potential if cash flow improves

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth8.00%
Profit Margin-8.51%
P/E Ratio8.5
ROE-13.71%
ROA2.83%
Debt/Equity160.28
P/B Ratio1.5
Op. Cash Flow$845.0M
Free Cash Flow$2.4B
Industry P/E26.2

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI34.4
Support$17.00
Resistance$22.08
MA 20$19.58
MA 50$19.99
MA 200$22.92
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.88

Valuation

Fair Value$75.17
Target Price$21.50
Upside/Downside23.56%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield2.07%

Risk Assessment

Beta1.10
Volatility68.21%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.