BALL:NYSEBall Corporation Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-11 - not real-time
$62.02
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Ball Corporation is trading at $62.02, comfortably below its DCF fair value of $66.90, implying roughly a 13% upside. The stock shows solid fundamentals—16% revenue growth, a 16.2% year‑over‑year increase, 6.9% profit margin, a forward EPS of $4.52 and a forward P/E of 13.7—while delivering a 1.29% dividend yield with a modest 24% payout ratio, indicating dividend sustainability. Technicals are mixed: the price sits just under the 20‑day SMA ($65.73) but above the 50‑day SMA ($60.45), the MACD is bearish and RSI at 41 suggests limited near‑term momentum, yet the broader trend remains bullish with support around $60.75 and resistance near $68.29. Analysts have raised the median target to $71, reinforcing the undervalued narrative.
Given the “Extreme Greed” market sentiment (Fear & Greed Index 76.9) and a low beta (~0.44) indicating limited market volatility, the stock presents a compelling risk‑adjusted profile. The combination of attractive valuation, growth‑oriented earnings, sustainable dividend, and a strong balance sheet (positive free cash flow and manageable leverage) supports a positive outlook across horizons.
Given the “Extreme Greed” market sentiment (Fear & Greed Index 76.9) and a low beta (~0.44) indicating limited market volatility, the stock presents a compelling risk‑adjusted profile. The combination of attractive valuation, growth‑oriented earnings, sustainable dividend, and a strong balance sheet (positive free cash flow and manageable leverage) supports a positive outlook across horizons.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price near immediate support at $60.75
- Bearish MACD histogram and neutral RSI
- Recent earnings beat and raised analyst target
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Undervaluation relative to DCF fair value
- Strong revenue growth and improving margins
- Upside potential to $66‑$70 range
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 9/10
Key Factors
- Sustainable dividend with low payout ratio
- Long‑term demand for aluminum packaging and ESG trends
- Low beta and solid cash generation supporting resilience
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth16.20%
Profit Margin6.93%
P/E Ratio18.8
ROE16.12%
ROA4.68%
Debt/Equity136.03
P/B Ratio3.0
Op. Cash Flow$1.3B
Free Cash Flow$883.5M
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI41.6
Support$60.75
Resistance$68.29
MA 20$65.73
MA 50$60.45
MA 200$54.21
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index76.91
Valuation
Fair Value$66.90
Target Price$70.15
Upside/Downside13.11%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.29%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.44
Volatility32.93%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.