AXFO:OMXSTOAxfood AB Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-15 - not real-time
SEK 328.90
Latest Price
4/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Axfood trades at SEK 328.9, comfortably above its 20‑day (≈325.97), 50‑day (≈316.25) and 200‑day (≈292.15) simple moving averages, suggesting a short‑term bullish bias. However, the MACD histogram is negative (‑0.70) and the MACD line sits below its signal line, a bearish divergence that, together with a decreasing volume trend, signals potential near‑term weakness around the resistance zone near SEK 336.
Fundamentally the stock appears stretched: the trailing P/E of ~30× and P/B of ~9.5× exceed typical defensive‑sector multiples, and the DCF fair value (≈SEK 260) and analyst median target (≈SEK 307.5) are both below the current price, indicating overvaluation. The company delivers solid cash generation (free cash flow ≈SEK 4.3 bn) and a dividend yield of 2.74% with an 81% payout, but its debt‑to‑equity ratio is high (~197%) and leverage could pressure sustainability if earnings falter.
Fundamentally the stock appears stretched: the trailing P/E of ~30× and P/B of ~9.5× exceed typical defensive‑sector multiples, and the DCF fair value (≈SEK 260) and analyst median target (≈SEK 307.5) are both below the current price, indicating overvaluation. The company delivers solid cash generation (free cash flow ≈SEK 4.3 bn) and a dividend yield of 2.74% with an 81% payout, but its debt‑to‑equity ratio is high (~197%) and leverage could pressure sustainability if earnings falter.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- MACD bearish divergence and negative histogram
- Decreasing volume indicating waning buying pressure
- Price approaching technical resistance around SEK 336
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Strong cash flow supports dividend but high leverage raises caution
- Defensive grocery sector provides earnings stability
- Current valuation above DCF and analyst targets suggests limited upside
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Resilient consumer‑defensive business model with steady revenue growth
- Attractive dividend yield and sustainable cash generation
- Potential for price correction toward DCF fair value offering upside
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth4.40%
Profit Margin2.62%
P/E Ratio30.5
ROE31.22%
ROA6.24%
Debt/Equity196.68
P/B Ratio9.5
Op. Cash FlowSEK6.8B
Free Cash FlowSEK4.3B
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI58.0
SupportSEK 315.50
ResistanceSEK 336.00
MA 20SEK 325.97
MA 50SEK 316.25
MA 200SEK 292.15
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.88
Valuation
Fair ValueSEK 260.15
Target PriceSEK 305.00
Upside/Downside-7.27%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield2.74%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.09
Volatility20.28%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
Similar Tickers
This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.