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AVIA:IDXPT Avia Avian Tbk Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-12 - not real-time

$6.43

Latest Price

8/10Risk

Risk Level: High

Executive Summary

Archer Aviation (ACHR) is trading at $6.43, well below its 20‑day SMA of $6.86 and the 50‑day SMA of $7.56, indicating short‑term weakness. The MACD histogram is negative and the RSI sits at 41, reinforcing a bearish technical backdrop, while the stock’s beta of over 2 and 30‑day volatility of 69% signal a highly volatile profile. Despite these pressures, analysts project a median target price of $12, implying roughly 72% upside potential and a undervalued valuation relative to the market. Recent material developments include a new >8% stake by BlackRock and an announced partnership with NVIDIA to embed AI technology in its eVTOL platforms, both of which could catalyze investor interest. However, the company’s fundamentals remain weak, with negative operating margins, a -$709 M EBITDA, and a forward PE of -6.16, underscoring the speculative nature of the upside.
In the medium to long term, the growth narrative around urban air mobility and potential regulatory approvals could lift the stock, but investors must weigh the high sector and regulatory risk, the current cash‑burn, and the ongoing need for capital. The upcoming Q4 2025 earnings release may provide clarity on cash‑flow trends, while the broader market’s “Extreme Greed” sentiment (Fear & Greed Index 78) could amplify price swings. Overall, the stock sits at a crossroads between short‑term technical weakness and longer‑term growth potential driven by strategic partnerships and a large addressable market.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish technical indicators (price below SMA20/50, negative MACD)
  • High volatility and beta increasing price swing risk
  • Recent price dip and limited near‑term catalysts

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Projected upside of ~72% to median target price
  • Strategic BlackRock ownership and NVIDIA AI partnership
  • Potential regulatory progress and market expansion in eVTOL

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Fundamental growth narrative in urban air mobility
  • Long‑term cash position sufficient to fund runway
  • Industry‑wide shift toward electric aviation and defense contracts

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

P/E Ratio-6.2
ROE-41.83%
ROA-26.29%
Debt/Equity5.53
P/B Ratio2.2
Op. Cash Flow$-432900000
Free Cash Flow$-376437504
Industry P/E30.0

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI41.0
Support$6.07
Resistance$7.55
MA 20$6.86
MA 50$7.56
MA 200$9.26
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index78.16

Valuation

Target Price$11.06
Upside/Downside71.94%
GradeUndervalued
TypeGrowth

Risk Assessment

Beta2.14
Volatility69.43%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.