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ATRL:TSXAtkinsrealis Group Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-14 - not real-time

CA$91.70

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

AtkinsRéalis delivered a **13% year‑over‑year revenue increase** and a record **CAD 21.2 billion backlog**, underscoring strong demand across its engineering and nuclear segments. The company’s **trailing P/E of 5.95** is dramatically below the industry average of 29, while its **ROE of 56%** signals efficient capital use, yet the **DCF fair‑value estimate of CAD 67.9** is well under the current price of **CAD 91.7**, indicating a valuation gap. Operating margins remain modest (≈6% gross, 6% operating) and volatility is high (≈50% 30‑day), with a **beta of 0.94** suggesting market‑aligned price swings. Recent earnings calls highlighted a surge in nuclear work and a successful **highway 407 asset sale**, further diversifying cash flow sources.
The dividend is modest (**0.09% yield**) with an ultra‑low payout ratio (**0.5%**), making it highly sustainable. Technicals show a **bearish MACD** and RSI near 42, positioning the stock in a neutral to slightly bearish short‑term stance, while the broader “Greed” sentiment (fear‑greed index 72.9) reflects market optimism. Overall, the firm’s growth fundamentals are solid, but current pricing appears stretched relative to intrinsic estimates.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish MACD and neutral RSI suggest limited upside
  • Current price above DCF fair value
  • High short‑term volatility

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Strong revenue growth and expanding backlog
  • Low P/E relative to peers
  • Sustained dividend with ultra‑low payout

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • High ROE and solid cash generation
  • Diversified geographic footprint reduces single‑market exposure
  • Growth potential in nuclear and infrastructure projects

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth13.40%
Profit Margin23.89%
P/E Ratio6.0
ROE56.49%
ROA3.81%
Debt/Equity23.49
P/B Ratio2.7
Op. Cash FlowCA$461.3M
Free Cash FlowCA$477.4M
Industry P/E29.1

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI41.7
SupportCA$87.11
ResistanceCA$98.24
MA 20CA$94.32
MA 50CA$95.97
MA 200CA$95.04
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index72.88

Valuation

Fair ValueCA$67.92
Target PriceCA$118.27
Upside/Downside28.97%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield0.09%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.94
Volatility50.02%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.