ATO:NYSEAtmos Energy Corporation Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-10 - not real-time
$186.04
Latest Price
3/10Risk
Risk Level: Low
Executive Summary
Atmos Energy (ATO) is trading at $186.04, just shy of its 52‑week high of $187.98 and well above the DCF‑derived fair value of $164.09, indicating a modest overvaluation. The stock’s technical profile shows a bullish trend (20‑day SMA $182.16 above 50‑day SMA $173.80) but the RSI is elevated at 71 and the MACD has turned bearish, suggesting short‑term overbought pressure near resistance. Fundamentally, the company delivered 14% revenue growth, strong operating margins (38.8%) and a solid dividend yield of 2.16% with a 47% payout ratio, though free cash flow is negative due to heavy capex. Its PE of 24.3 exceeds the industry average of 20.9 and the beta of 0.15 signals very low market sensitivity, while volatility sits at 12.8% over the past 30 days. The “Extreme Greed” market sentiment and rising volume add momentum but also caution given the limited upside of ~‑2.8% from the DCF model.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- RSI in overbought territory (71)
- Bearish MACD signal
- Price approaching resistance at $187.98
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Consistent revenue growth (14%) and strong operating margins
- Attractive dividend yield with sustainable payout
- Regulated utility model limiting earnings volatility
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Low beta (0.15) and defensive sector positioning
- Stable cash generation despite capex, supporting dividend
- Long‑term growth prospects in regulated natural gas distribution
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth14.20%
Profit Margin25.67%
P/E Ratio24.3
ROE9.24%
ROA3.65%
Debt/Equity67.44
P/B Ratio2.2
Op. Cash Flow$2.1B
Free Cash Flow$-1871672832
Industry P/E20.9
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI71.1
Support$171.14
Resistance$187.98
MA 20$182.16
MA 50$173.80
MA 200$167.07
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index81.13
Valuation
Fair Value$164.09
Target Price$180.90
Upside/Downside-2.76%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.16%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.15
Volatility12.77%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.