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ARCLK:BISTARCELIK ANONIM SIRKETI FUTURES Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-16 - not real-time

TRY 106.20

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Arçelik’s shares are trading at 106.2 TRY, notably below the 20‑day (104.27 TRY), 50‑day (110.17 TRY) and 200‑day (113.42 TRY) simple moving averages, signaling a bearish price bias. The RSI sits at 49.9, indicating neutral momentum, while the MACD histogram is positive (+0.30) despite the MACD line remaining below its signal, suggesting a tentative bullish under‑current. The price is perched near the identified support at 100.4 TRY and faces resistance around 110.9 TRY, with a decreasing volume trend that could foreshadow reduced liquidity. Volatility remains elevated at roughly 29 % over the past 30 days, and the beta is effectively neutral (‑0.03), implying limited systematic market correlation. Market sentiment is at an “Extreme Greed” level (Fear‑Greed Index 92.6), which may be inflating short‑term buying pressure despite the underlying technical weakness. Fundamental indicators show a forward P/E of 6.9 and a price‑to‑book of 0.88, hinting at valuation headroom, while the zero dividend yield and modest market cap (~69.7 bn TRY) suggest limited cash return expectations.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Cautious
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Price below all major SMAs
  • Decreasing volume trend
  • Proximity to support level

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Neutral RSI and modest MACD bullish histogram
  • Valuation upside (forward P/E ~6.9, P/B <1)
  • Elevated volatility may cause price swings

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Fundamental undervaluation
  • Potential recovery in domestic demand
  • Low systematic beta offering defensive characteristics

Key Metrics & Analysis

Commodity Metrics

Spot Price106.2
Futures CurveFlat
Inventory LevelMedium
Supply/Demand RegimeOversupplied
USD SensitivityLow
Rates SensitivityMedium
Geopolitical SensitivityMedium

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI49.9
SupportTRY 100.40
ResistanceTRY 110.90
MA 20TRY 104.27
MA 50TRY 110.17
MA 200TRY 113.42
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index92.57

Risk Assessment

Beta-0.04
Volatility29.36%
Sector RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskHigh
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.