APP:NASDAQApplovin Corporation Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-09 - not real-time
$517.23
Latest Price
8/10Risk
Risk Level: High
Executive Summary
AppLovin trades around $517, well above its DCF‑derived fair value of roughly $300, indicating a substantial premium. The stock’s technical profile shows a bullish MACD histogram (+$19) and an RSI of 58.8, suggesting modest momentum but no overbought condition, while price hovers just below the recent resistance at $520. Fundamentally, the company delivers exceptional profitability – gross margin of 87.9%, operating margin of 76.9% and profit margin of 60.8% – and is growing revenue at a rapid 66% year‑over‑year pace. However, valuation multiples are lofty (PE ≈ 51×, PB ≈ 82×) and the beta of 2.5 plus a 30‑day volatility of 127% signal heightened market sensitivity. Analyst sentiment remains positive, with a consensus “Buy” and a median price target of $655, implying an additional upside narrative despite the current overvaluation. Investors must weigh the strong cash generation and growth prospects against the steep valuation and pronounced risk factors.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Bullish MACD histogram indicating short‑term momentum
- Support level near $359 provides downside cushion
- Analyst consensus remains a Buy with strong upside expectations
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Robust revenue growth (66% YoY) and ultra‑high margins
- Elevated valuation multiples relative to industry peers
- High beta (2.5) and volatility that could amplify price swings
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Sustainable free cash flow generation and strong cash position
- Potential regulatory headwinds in the ad‑tech space
- Current price premium may limit upside unless valuation compresses
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth65.90%
Profit Margin60.83%
P/E Ratio51.5
ROE212.94%
ROA39.53%
Debt/Equity171.80
P/B Ratio82.0
Op. Cash Flow$4.0B
Free Cash Flow$2.7B
Industry P/E18.3
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI58.8
Support$359.00
Resistance$520.36
MA 20$435.84
MA 50$520.67
MA 200$511.89
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index75.89
Valuation
Fair Value$300.09
Target Price$648.57
Upside/Downside25.39%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Risk Assessment
Beta2.08
Volatility127.09%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.