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APP:NASDAQApplovin Corporation Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-09 - not real-time

$517.23

Latest Price

8/10Risk

Risk Level: High

Executive Summary

AppLovin trades around $517, well above its DCF‑derived fair value of roughly $300, indicating a substantial premium. The stock’s technical profile shows a bullish MACD histogram (+$19) and an RSI of 58.8, suggesting modest momentum but no overbought condition, while price hovers just below the recent resistance at $520. Fundamentally, the company delivers exceptional profitability – gross margin of 87.9%, operating margin of 76.9% and profit margin of 60.8% – and is growing revenue at a rapid 66% year‑over‑year pace. However, valuation multiples are lofty (PE ≈ 51×, PB ≈ 82×) and the beta of 2.5 plus a 30‑day volatility of 127% signal heightened market sensitivity. Analyst sentiment remains positive, with a consensus “Buy” and a median price target of $655, implying an additional upside narrative despite the current overvaluation. Investors must weigh the strong cash generation and growth prospects against the steep valuation and pronounced risk factors.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish MACD histogram indicating short‑term momentum
  • Support level near $359 provides downside cushion
  • Analyst consensus remains a Buy with strong upside expectations

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Robust revenue growth (66% YoY) and ultra‑high margins
  • Elevated valuation multiples relative to industry peers
  • High beta (2.5) and volatility that could amplify price swings

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Sustainable free cash flow generation and strong cash position
  • Potential regulatory headwinds in the ad‑tech space
  • Current price premium may limit upside unless valuation compresses

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth65.90%
Profit Margin60.83%
P/E Ratio51.5
ROE212.94%
ROA39.53%
Debt/Equity171.80
P/B Ratio82.0
Op. Cash Flow$4.0B
Free Cash Flow$2.7B
Industry P/E18.3

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI58.8
Support$359.00
Resistance$520.36
MA 20$435.84
MA 50$520.67
MA 200$511.89
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index75.89

Valuation

Fair Value$300.09
Target Price$648.57
Upside/Downside25.39%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth

Risk Assessment

Beta2.08
Volatility127.09%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.