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AMMN:IDXPT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-11 - not real-time

IDR 5,500.00

Latest Price

8/10Risk

Risk Level: High

Executive Summary

The stock is trading at its technical support of 5,500 IDR, well below the 20‑day SMA of 7,052.5, the 50‑day SMA of 7,247.5 and the 200‑day SMA of 7,454.5, indicating a strong bearish bias. Momentum signals are mixed: the RSI 14 sits at 30.99 (oversold territory) while the MACD line remains bearish with a negative histogram, and volume is trending higher, suggesting a possible short‑term bounce. However, volatility is extreme at 87% (30‑day) and the beta is low at 0.38, meaning price swings are largely company‑specific.
Fundamentally the company is in distress: revenue has collapsed by 61.7%, profit margin is a negative 36.2%, and operating cash flow is deeply negative. Leverage is severe with a debt‑to‑equity ratio of 125.8 and total debt exceeding cash by nearly six‑fold. Valuation metrics are absurdly high (P/B > 80,000, P/S > 558,000) and the forward P/E of 16.7 rests on a breakeven EPS projection. Adding to the pressure, Indonesia’s recent ban on copper concentrate exports creates a high regulatory headwind for Amman’s core operations.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price at strong support level (5,500 IDR)
  • Oversold RSI indicating potential rebound
  • Increasing volume suggesting buying interest

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish MACD and sustained negative cash flow
  • High leverage and weak profitability
  • Regulatory export ban limiting operating upside

Long Term

> 3 years
Cautious
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Severe financial distress (debt‑to‑equity >125)
  • Extreme overvaluation relative to fundamentals
  • Persistent regulatory and commodity‑cycle risks

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-61.70%
Profit Margin-36.22%
P/E Ratio16.7
ROE-4.88%
ROA0.07%
Debt/Equity125.78
P/B Ratio80882.4
Op. Cash FlowIDR-1335160960
Free Cash FlowIDR-1930647552

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI31.0
SupportIDR 5,500.00
ResistanceIDR 8,050.00
MA 20IDR 7,052.50
MA 50IDR 7,247.50
MA 200IDR 7,454.50
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index78.16

Valuation

Target PriceIDR 10,002.05
Upside/Downside81.86%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue

Risk Assessment

Beta0.38
Volatility87.13%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.