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AMGN:NASDAQAmgen Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-09 - not real-time

$376.97

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Amgen (AMGN) is trading at $376.97, just above its 20‑day SMA of 375.80 and comfortably over the 50‑day SMA of 353.60, indicating a short‑term bullish bias. However, the MACD histogram is negative (‑2.27) and the signal line is bearish, suggesting momentum may be weakening as the price approaches the resistance level of $391.29. The RSI sits at 55.6, well within the neutral zone, and the stock sits on a solid support of $361, giving it a modest technical cushion.
Fundamentally, AMGN delivers strong profitability with a gross margin of 70.8% and an operating margin of 30.5%, while revenue is growing at 8.6% YoY. The forward PE of 16.2 and a dividend yield of 2.73% (payout ratio 66.9%) provide income appeal, yet the DCF‑derived fair value of $191.79 implies the market is pricing in a significant premium, reflected in an overvaluation relative to peers (PE 26.5 vs industry 25.4). The company carries a high debt‑to‑equity ratio of 640, but generates robust free cash flow of $7.5 bn, supporting dividend sustainability. Overall sentiment is bullish, with a Fear & Greed Index at “Extreme Greed,” but the valuation gap and regulatory exposure temper enthusiasm.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • MACD bearish divergence indicating potential near‑term pullback
  • Price nearing resistance at $391.29
  • Dividend increase to $2.52 per share reinforcing income appeal

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Consistent revenue growth of 8.6% and strong operating margins
  • Analyst consensus of "Buy" with median target $351.5
  • Stable volume and low beta (0.49) suggesting limited price volatility

Long Term

> 3 years
Cautious
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • DCF fair value of $191.79 far below current price, indicating overvaluation
  • High debt‑to‑equity ratio (640) and associated financial risk
  • Regulatory and pipeline uncertainties that could impact future earnings

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth8.60%
Profit Margin20.98%
P/E Ratio26.5
ROE106.10%
ROA7.93%
Debt/Equity640.27
P/B Ratio23.5
Op. Cash Flow$10.0B
Free Cash Flow$7.5B
Industry P/E25.4

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI55.6
Support$361.00
Resistance$391.29
MA 20$375.80
MA 50$353.60
MA 200$312.87
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index100

Valuation

Fair Value$191.79
Target Price$350.04
Upside/Downside-7.14%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield2.73%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.49
Volatility35.05%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.