AMGN:NASDAQAmgen Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-09 - not real-time
$376.97
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Amgen (AMGN) is trading at $376.97, just above its 20‑day SMA of 375.80 and comfortably over the 50‑day SMA of 353.60, indicating a short‑term bullish bias. However, the MACD histogram is negative (‑2.27) and the signal line is bearish, suggesting momentum may be weakening as the price approaches the resistance level of $391.29. The RSI sits at 55.6, well within the neutral zone, and the stock sits on a solid support of $361, giving it a modest technical cushion.
Fundamentally, AMGN delivers strong profitability with a gross margin of 70.8% and an operating margin of 30.5%, while revenue is growing at 8.6% YoY. The forward PE of 16.2 and a dividend yield of 2.73% (payout ratio 66.9%) provide income appeal, yet the DCF‑derived fair value of $191.79 implies the market is pricing in a significant premium, reflected in an overvaluation relative to peers (PE 26.5 vs industry 25.4). The company carries a high debt‑to‑equity ratio of 640, but generates robust free cash flow of $7.5 bn, supporting dividend sustainability. Overall sentiment is bullish, with a Fear & Greed Index at “Extreme Greed,” but the valuation gap and regulatory exposure temper enthusiasm.
Fundamentally, AMGN delivers strong profitability with a gross margin of 70.8% and an operating margin of 30.5%, while revenue is growing at 8.6% YoY. The forward PE of 16.2 and a dividend yield of 2.73% (payout ratio 66.9%) provide income appeal, yet the DCF‑derived fair value of $191.79 implies the market is pricing in a significant premium, reflected in an overvaluation relative to peers (PE 26.5 vs industry 25.4). The company carries a high debt‑to‑equity ratio of 640, but generates robust free cash flow of $7.5 bn, supporting dividend sustainability. Overall sentiment is bullish, with a Fear & Greed Index at “Extreme Greed,” but the valuation gap and regulatory exposure temper enthusiasm.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- MACD bearish divergence indicating potential near‑term pullback
- Price nearing resistance at $391.29
- Dividend increase to $2.52 per share reinforcing income appeal
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Consistent revenue growth of 8.6% and strong operating margins
- Analyst consensus of "Buy" with median target $351.5
- Stable volume and low beta (0.49) suggesting limited price volatility
Long Term
> 3 yearsCautious
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- DCF fair value of $191.79 far below current price, indicating overvaluation
- High debt‑to‑equity ratio (640) and associated financial risk
- Regulatory and pipeline uncertainties that could impact future earnings
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth8.60%
Profit Margin20.98%
P/E Ratio26.5
ROE106.10%
ROA7.93%
Debt/Equity640.27
P/B Ratio23.5
Op. Cash Flow$10.0B
Free Cash Flow$7.5B
Industry P/E25.4
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI55.6
Support$361.00
Resistance$391.29
MA 20$375.80
MA 50$353.60
MA 200$312.87
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index100
Valuation
Fair Value$191.79
Target Price$350.04
Upside/Downside-7.14%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield2.73%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.49
Volatility35.05%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.