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ALV:XETRAllianz SE Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-09 - not real-time

$109.45

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Autoliv (ALV) is trading just above its recent support of $106.94, with the 20‑day SMA ($120.06) and 50‑day SMA ($122.69) both sitting above the current price, indicating short‑term pressure. The RSI of 25.2 suggests the stock is oversold, while a bearish MACD histogram reinforces downside momentum, though the overall trend is flagged as neutral. Volatility is elevated at roughly 25% over the past 30 days, but a beta of 0.9 points to lower systematic risk compared with the market.
Fundamentally, the company delivers solid growth—revenues are up 7.7% YoY and ROE stands at a robust 30%—while trading at a forward P/E of 9.1, well below the sector average. The DCF fair‑value estimate of $110.40 is marginally above the market price of $109.45, implying roughly 24% upside, and the 2.96% dividend yield is supported by a modest 33% payout ratio and healthy free cash flow. Analyst consensus is bullish (Buy) with a median target of $137.5, underscoring the blend of growth prospects and value appeal.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • RSI in oversold territory indicating potential rebound
  • Price near technical support with limited downside
  • Attractive dividend yield for income‑focused investors

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Forward P/E of 9.1 suggesting strong valuation headroom
  • Projected earnings growth from 7.7% revenue increase
  • DCF upside of ~24% and stable cash flow generation

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • Market leadership in automotive safety systems
  • Consistently high ROE (~30%) and solid margins
  • Sustainable dividend policy with low payout ratio

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth7.70%
Profit Margin6.80%
P/E Ratio11.5
ROE30.24%
ROA8.41%
Debt/Equity89.78
P/B Ratio3.2
Op. Cash Flow$1.2B
Free Cash Flow$525.5M

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI25.2
Support$106.94
Resistance$128.37
MA 20$120.06
MA 50$122.69
MA 200$118.62
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index100

Valuation

Fair Value$110.40
Target Price$135.79
Upside/Downside24.06%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.96%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.90
Volatility25.15%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.