ALRS:RUSALROSA Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-13 - not real-time
$30.30
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Alerus Financial is trading at $30.30, just shy of its 52‑week high of $30.45 and comfortably above its 20‑day SMA ($28.58) while still above the 50‑day ($26.93) and 200‑day ($23.94) averages, signaling a strong bullish trend. The MACD line sits above its signal line (bullish) and the histogram is positive, but the RSI of 74 indicates the stock is technically overbought, suggesting short‑term caution near the current resistance level.
Fundamentally, the company posted 18.7% revenue growth, a robust operating margin of nearly 40% and a forward PE of 11.3, well below the industry average. The DCF‑derived fair value of $62.9 implies substantial upside, while a 2.81% dividend yield with an 80% payout ratio and a recent dividend increase underscores dividend sustainability. Strong operating cash flow and a manageable debt profile further support a positive outlook.
Fundamentally, the company posted 18.7% revenue growth, a robust operating margin of nearly 40% and a forward PE of 11.3, well below the industry average. The DCF‑derived fair value of $62.9 implies substantial upside, while a 2.81% dividend yield with an 80% payout ratio and a recent dividend increase underscores dividend sustainability. Strong operating cash flow and a manageable debt profile further support a positive outlook.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Bullish MACD but RSI in overbought territory
- Price near resistance at $30.45
- Recent dividend increase supporting yield
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Revenue growth of 18.7% and strong operating margins
- Forward PE of 11.3 indicating value relative to earnings
- DCF fair value suggests significant upside
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Consistent dividend growth over 29 years
- Stable cash flow generation
- Moderate sector and regulatory risk for regional banks
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth18.70%
Profit Margin11.46%
P/E Ratio28.9
ROE4.98%
ROA0.51%
P/B Ratio1.3
Op. Cash Flow$87.6M
Industry P/E16.8
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI74.1
Support$26.31
Resistance$30.45
MA 20$28.58
MA 50$26.93
MA 200$23.94
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index89.86
Valuation
Fair Value$62.89
Target Price$28.13
Upside/Downside-7.18%
GradeUndervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield2.81%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.78
Volatility20.79%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.