ALL:ASXAristocrat Leisure Limited Analysis

Aristocrat Leisure is trading at AUD 45.82, well beneath its 20‑day (≈47.7), 50‑day (≈52.3) and 200‑day (≈62.1) simple moving averages, signaling a pronounced bearish bias. The 14‑day RSI sits at roughly 36, hinting at oversold conditions, while the MACD histogram has turned positive, offering a tentative bullish signal amid the downtrend. The stock is perched just above the identified support level of AUD 44.76 and faces resistance near AUD 52.6, suggesting limited upside unless a breakout occurs.
Fundamentally, the company delivers robust profitability with a gross margin above 60 % and an operating margin near 31 %, and it generates a healthy free cash flow exceeding AUD 1.2 bn. However, the discounted cash‑flow model values the shares around AUD 27, implying the market price is significantly overvalued relative to intrinsic estimates. The forward earnings multiple (≈15.7×) is more attractive than the trailing PE (≈24.2×), and a 2 % dividend yield supported by a 45 % payout ratio points to sustainable income, while moderate leverage (debt‑to‑equity ≈31 %) and a solid ROE (~18 %) reinforce the long‑run case.