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AL:CRYPTOCAPMarket Cap AL, $ Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-14 - not real-time

$64.52

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Air Lease Corporation trades around $64.5, just above its calculated support of $64.46 and below the 20‑day SMA of $64.75, indicating a price that is holding a technical floor while the bullish SMA alignment suggests upward momentum. PE of roughly 7x versus an industry average of 29x and a PB below 1 point to a deep valuation discount, reinforced by a modest dividend yield of 1.36% and a payout ratio under 10%, making the dividend highly sustainable. The company posted a 15% revenue growth year‑over‑year, strong operating margins above 55%, and a profit margin of 36%, reflecting a resilient business model despite the airline sector’s cyclicality. However, the balance sheet is heavily leveraged, with a debt‑to‑equity ratio exceeding 230, and cash reserves covering only a fraction of total debt, which remains a material concern. Technical indicators are mixed: the RSI sits at 43, the MACD histogram is negative and the signal line is bearish, yet volume is increasing and the 30‑day volatility is low at just over 2%, suggesting limited short‑term price swings.
Given the undervalued pricing, solid cash‑flow generation, and sustainable dividend, the stock presents a compelling case for investors with a medium‑to‑long‑term horizon, provided they are comfortable with the elevated leverage. Sector‑specific risks such as airline demand cycles and regulatory changes are moderate, while the company’s global exposure spreads geographic risk. Overall, the balance of attractive valuation and strong fundamentals outweighs the debt burden, supporting a buy stance for the longer term.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price is near technical support with limited upside
  • Bearish MACD histogram signals short‑term pressure
  • Increasing volume may support a bounce

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Significant valuation discount (low PE and PB)
  • Strong operating margins and cash‑flow generation
  • Sustainable dividend with low payout ratio

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Long‑term lease contracts provide stable revenue
  • Growth potential from fleet expansion and order backlog
  • Undervalued multiples offset by high leverage risk

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth15.10%
Profit Margin36.09%
P/E Ratio6.9
ROE13.60%
ROA2.98%
Debt/Equity232.87
P/B Ratio0.9
Op. Cash Flow$1.7B
Free Cash Flow$162.5M
Industry P/E29.1

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI43.3
Support$64.46
Resistance$64.96
MA 20$64.75
MA 50$64.54
MA 200$61.95
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.88

Valuation

Target Price$65.00
Upside/Downside0.74%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.36%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.92
Volatility2.14%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.