AIR:NZXAir New Zealand Limited Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-17 - not real-time
$108.76
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
The stock is trading above its 20‑day moving average, which itself sits above the 50‑day and 200‑day averages, underscoring a clear bullish trend. The RSI hovers in the mid‑range while the MACD has turned bearish, hinting at a potential short‑term correction, but the increasing volume supports the underlying momentum. With a beta above one and 30‑day volatility exceeding typical market levels, price swings are likely to be pronounced, and the current price remains comfortably above the identified support level. Market sentiment is in the “Extreme Greed” zone, and analysts collectively rate the stock as a strong‑buy.
Fundamentally, the company delivers double‑digit revenue growth and a forward earnings multiple that is substantially lower than the trailing multiple, indicating earnings acceleration ahead. However, the trailing P/E is well above the industry average, raising concerns of overvaluation, and the firm carries no dividend. Debt levels are moderate relative to equity, and cash generation is modest, suggesting a balanced but not overly aggressive balance sheet. The outlook is buoyed by expanding aerospace MRO demand and defense contracts, positioning the stock for continued upside if valuation pressures ease.
Fundamentally, the company delivers double‑digit revenue growth and a forward earnings multiple that is substantially lower than the trailing multiple, indicating earnings acceleration ahead. However, the trailing P/E is well above the industry average, raising concerns of overvaluation, and the firm carries no dividend. Debt levels are moderate relative to equity, and cash generation is modest, suggesting a balanced but not overly aggressive balance sheet. The outlook is buoyed by expanding aerospace MRO demand and defense contracts, positioning the stock for continued upside if valuation pressures ease.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Price above key moving averages indicating bullish bias
- Increasing volume supporting current trend
- MACD bearish divergence suggesting limited upside in the near term
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Revenue growth outpacing the industry
- Forward earnings multiple compressing toward a reasonable level
- Strong analyst consensus and market sentiment favoring the stock
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Sustained demand for aerospace MRO and defense services
- Balanced capital structure with moderate debt
- Valuation remains elevated relative to peers, limiting upside potential
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth15.90%
Profit Margin3.17%
P/E Ratio42.5
ROE6.86%
ROA5.59%
Debt/Equity66.89
P/B Ratio2.7
Op. Cash Flow$1.4M
Free Cash Flow$27.1M
Industry P/E29.4
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI48.4
Support$99.18
Resistance$121.64
MA 20$112.68
MA 50$107.96
MA 200$85.28
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index81.48
Valuation
Target Price$119.80
Upside/Downside10.15%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Risk Assessment
Beta1.29
Volatility37.32%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.