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AGI:TSXAlamos Gold Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-08-29 - not real-time

CA$51.11

Latest Price

8/10Risk

Risk Level: High

Executive Summary

The moving-average structure behind Alamos Gold Inc. is neutral at CAD 51.11, with no clear ordering between short and long averages. Across the trailing 30 sessions it gained 28.8%. Relative strength is 60.9 — approaching overbought — and the MACD signal is bullish. The recent range runs from support at CAD 38.03 up to resistance at CAD 54.08.
Valuation screens as fair, on a P/E of 13.2 with no clean sector comparison available. The average analyst target implies 29.8% above today's level. Revenue is growing at 35.6% on a 52.6% profit margin. The 0.43% dividend yield looks covered by current payout levels.
Risk scores 8 out of 10, which is high for this asset class. With 30-day volatility of 49.1%, a beta of 1.48 and a maximum drawdown of 48.5%, position sizing matters more than entry timing here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 96 on the fear-greed composite.
Near-term and long-term part ways here — hold short-term against buy longer out, with 5/10 conviction on the long call.

Top Market Events

All amounts are in United States dollars, unless otherwise stated.Gold prices soaring 40% year-over-year powered a 12% EPS beat, but a seismic event at Young-Davidson has forced the...Strong free cash flow and increased shareholder returns amid operational challenges at Young-Davidson and La Yaqui...

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 3/10

Key Factors

  • Trading below the 200-day average of 54.03
  • MACD momentum is positive
  • 30-day price change of +28.8%

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 4/10

Key Factors

  • Trading below the 200-day average of 54.03
  • Analyst targets imply +29.8% versus the current price
  • 30-day volatility of 49.1%

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Analyst targets imply +29.8% versus the current price
  • Profit margin of 52.6% is healthy
  • Revenue growth of +35.6%

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth35.60%
Profit Margin52.64%
P/E Ratio13.2
ROE27.41%
ROA13.80%
Debt/Equity4.50
P/B Ratio3.2
Op. Cash FlowCA$990.5M
Free Cash FlowCA$128.9M

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI60.9
SupportCA$38.03
ResistanceCA$54.08
MA 20CA$47.65
MA 50CA$44.60
MA 200CA$54.03
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index95.66

Valuation

Fair ValueCA$11.89
Target PriceCA$66.34
Upside/Downside29.79%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield0.43%

Risk Assessment

Beta1.48
Volatility49.07%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.