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ADP:NASDAQAutomatic Data Processing, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-09 - not real-time

$223.04

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

ADP is trading at $223, which sits above its 20‑day SMA (≈$217) but below the 50‑day (≈$239) and 200‑day (≈$277) averages, indicating a short‑term bounce within a longer‑term downtrend. Technical signals are mixed: the MACD histogram is positive and the MACD line sits above its signal (a bullish hint), while the RSI at 48 suggests neutral momentum and the overall trend is flagged as bearish. The stock holds steady on a stable volume base, with support near $203 and resistance around $231. Fundamentally, ADP delivered an earnings beat (EPS $2.62 vs. $2.57 consensus) and maintains a solid 3.0% dividend yield with a 60% payout ratio, high ROE (~74%), and low beta (~0.58) that points to defensive characteristics. However, market sentiment is mixed—analysts have trimmed price targets (now $255‑$270) and noted “confusing” results, while the broader market remains optimistic, reflected in a “Extreme Greed” sentiment and a 22% upside to the median $272 target.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price near resistance at $231 with limited upside on the near‑term chart
  • Mixed analyst sentiment after earnings beat and noted confusion
  • Attractive dividend yield providing downside cushion

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Median 12‑month price target of $272 implies ~22% upside
  • Strong cash generation and sustainable dividend supporting total return
  • Robust profitability metrics (ROE ~74%, operating margin ~26%)

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Recurring HCM subscription model delivering stable revenue growth
  • Dividend‑king status with a reliable 3% yield and solid payout ratio
  • Low beta and defensive positioning in the payroll/HR software niche

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth6.20%
Profit Margin19.96%
P/E Ratio21.4
ROE73.84%
ROA4.71%
Debt/Equity70.04
P/B Ratio14.1
Op. Cash Flow$4.7B
Free Cash Flow$3.5B
Industry P/E36.8

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI48.0
Support$203.26
Resistance$231.36
MA 20$216.56
MA 50$239.13
MA 200$277.42
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index75.89

Valuation

Fair Value$149.23
Target Price$272.00
Upside/Downside21.95%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield3.01%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.58
Volatility31.97%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.