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ADM:LSEAdmiral Group plc Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-13 - not real-time

£3,464.00

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Admiral Group plc is trading at 3,464 GBp, comfortably above its 20‑day (3,354.6 GBp), 50‑day (3,325.6 GBp) and 200‑day (3,182.9 GBp) simple moving averages, confirming a strong bullish trend. The MACD line (23.17) sits well above its signal (8.77) and the RSI sits at 62.5, indicating continued upward momentum without being overbought. However, the 30‑day volatility of 28.8% and a decreasing volume trend suggest caution on the short side. On the fundamentals side, the stock’s trailing P/E of 14.3 is below the industry average of 16.8, while the dividend yield of 4.58% and a payout ratio of 73% provide an attractive income stream. A remarkable ROE of 53% and solid free cash flow underpin the dividend’s sustainability, though a debt‑to‑equity ratio of 131% signals notable leverage. The DCF‑derived fair value of ~4,298 GBp and analyst median target of 3,550 GBp imply modest upside, while the “Extreme Greed” market sentiment (89.86) adds a layer of optimism.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish technical indicators (price above SMAs, bullish MACD)
  • Decreasing volume and elevated short‑term volatility
  • Proximity to resistance level around 3,510 GBp

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Valuation gap vs industry (P/E 14.3 vs 16.8)
  • Strong profitability (ROE 53%) and cash generation
  • Attractive dividend yield (4.58%) with sustainable payout

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Consistent dividend income and high yield
  • Resilient business model across UK and European insurance markets
  • Undervalued relative to DCF fair value and analyst targets

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-4.10%
Profit Margin14.79%
P/E Ratio14.3
ROE52.96%
ROA7.66%
Debt/Equity131.16
P/B Ratio7.3
Op. Cash Flow£436.5M
Free Cash Flow£983.2M
Industry P/E16.8

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI62.5
Support£3,198.00
Resistance£3,510.00
MA 20£3,354.60
MA 50£3,325.62
MA 200£3,182.94
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.86

Valuation

Fair Value£4,297.80
Target Price£3,381.50
Upside/Downside-2.38%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield4.58%

Risk Assessment

Beta-0.10
Volatility28.83%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.