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ACGL:NASDAQArch Capital Group Ltd. Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-10 - not real-time

$95.62

Latest Price

4/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Arch Capital Group is trading well below its discounted cash‑flow estimate, presenting a compelling valuation gap. The company posted earnings per share that comfortably beat consensus estimates and delivered double‑digit revenue growth, underscoring strong operating performance. Profitability metrics such as gross and operating margins are solid, and return on equity remains robust, indicating efficient capital deployment. The balance sheet shows ample cash relative to debt, and the low price‑to‑book multiple further signals a discount relative to peers. Analyst consensus remains bullish, with a majority of buy recommendations and a target price substantially above the current level.
Technical indicators reveal that the stock is holding above its short‑term moving average while remaining below its mid‑term average, and the relative strength index suggests room for upside momentum. Although the MACD histogram is currently negative, the broader trend is still classified as bullish, and price is near a key support zone. Volatility is elevated but the beta is low, indicating limited market‑wide sensitivity. Combined with decreasing volume trends, the setup favors a patient accumulation strategy rather than short‑term speculation.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • price near strong support level
  • earnings beat and revenue growth
  • valuation discount to fair value

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • sustained profitability and cash generation
  • low beta reduces market exposure
  • continued upside potential versus analyst targets

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • DCF fair value suggests significant long‑run upside
  • stable insurance and reinsurance franchise
  • strong return on equity and capital efficiency

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth8.50%
Profit Margin22.07%
P/E Ratio8.2
ROE19.54%
ROA4.44%
Debt/Equity11.92
P/B Ratio1.5
Op. Cash Flow$6.2B
Free Cash Flow$-17002250240
Industry P/E17.4

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI40.9
Support$94.84
Resistance$101.89
MA 20$98.57
MA 50$96.35
MA 200$92.10
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index77.02

Valuation

Fair Value$238.95
Target Price$109.32
Upside/Downside14.32%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue

Risk Assessment

Beta0.41
Volatility23.61%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.