ACGL:NASDAQArch Capital Group Ltd. Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-10 - not real-time
$95.62
Latest Price
4/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Arch Capital Group is trading well below its discounted cash‑flow estimate, presenting a compelling valuation gap. The company posted earnings per share that comfortably beat consensus estimates and delivered double‑digit revenue growth, underscoring strong operating performance. Profitability metrics such as gross and operating margins are solid, and return on equity remains robust, indicating efficient capital deployment. The balance sheet shows ample cash relative to debt, and the low price‑to‑book multiple further signals a discount relative to peers. Analyst consensus remains bullish, with a majority of buy recommendations and a target price substantially above the current level.
Technical indicators reveal that the stock is holding above its short‑term moving average while remaining below its mid‑term average, and the relative strength index suggests room for upside momentum. Although the MACD histogram is currently negative, the broader trend is still classified as bullish, and price is near a key support zone. Volatility is elevated but the beta is low, indicating limited market‑wide sensitivity. Combined with decreasing volume trends, the setup favors a patient accumulation strategy rather than short‑term speculation.
Technical indicators reveal that the stock is holding above its short‑term moving average while remaining below its mid‑term average, and the relative strength index suggests room for upside momentum. Although the MACD histogram is currently negative, the broader trend is still classified as bullish, and price is near a key support zone. Volatility is elevated but the beta is low, indicating limited market‑wide sensitivity. Combined with decreasing volume trends, the setup favors a patient accumulation strategy rather than short‑term speculation.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- price near strong support level
- earnings beat and revenue growth
- valuation discount to fair value
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- sustained profitability and cash generation
- low beta reduces market exposure
- continued upside potential versus analyst targets
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 9/10
Key Factors
- DCF fair value suggests significant long‑run upside
- stable insurance and reinsurance franchise
- strong return on equity and capital efficiency
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth8.50%
Profit Margin22.07%
P/E Ratio8.2
ROE19.54%
ROA4.44%
Debt/Equity11.92
P/B Ratio1.5
Op. Cash Flow$6.2B
Free Cash Flow$-17002250240
Industry P/E17.4
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI40.9
Support$94.84
Resistance$101.89
MA 20$98.57
MA 50$96.35
MA 200$92.10
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index77.02
Valuation
Fair Value$238.95
Target Price$109.32
Upside/Downside14.32%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Risk Assessment
Beta0.41
Volatility23.61%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.