9901:HKEXNew Oriental Education & Technology Group, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-14 - not real-time
HK$41.12
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
New Oriental Education & Technology Group is trading below its 50‑day moving average while the 20‑day SMA sits just under the current price, suggesting limited upside momentum.
The stock exhibits a bearish MACD divergence and decreasing volume, reinforcing a neutral‑to‑slightly bearish short‑term technical outlook. However, the company maintains a solid cash position, low debt‑to‑equity, and a modest payout ratio, supporting dividend sustainability. The DCF model indicates a fair value well beneath the market price, pointing to potential overvaluation despite a forward PE that appears attractive relative to peers. Regulatory scrutiny in the Chinese education sector remains a key headwind, while the dividend yield and strong cash flow provide some defensive qualities.
The stock exhibits a bearish MACD divergence and decreasing volume, reinforcing a neutral‑to‑slightly bearish short‑term technical outlook. However, the company maintains a solid cash position, low debt‑to‑equity, and a modest payout ratio, supporting dividend sustainability. The DCF model indicates a fair value well beneath the market price, pointing to potential overvaluation despite a forward PE that appears attractive relative to peers. Regulatory scrutiny in the Chinese education sector remains a key headwind, while the dividend yield and strong cash flow provide some defensive qualities.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Bearish MACD histogram and decreasing volume
- Price testing near immediate support level
- Dividend yield offering modest income
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Fundamentals show solid cash generation and low leverage
- Forward earnings estimates suggest earnings expansion
- Regulatory environment in Chinese education remains uncertain
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Sustainable dividend supported by strong free cash flow
- Potential upside from digital education and e‑commerce initiatives
- Long‑term exposure to policy risk and macroeconomic shifts in China
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth14.70%
Profit Margin7.40%
P/E Ratio21.9
ROE9.89%
ROA4.34%
Debt/Equity18.55
P/B Ratio0.2
Op. Cash FlowHK$915.9M
Free Cash FlowHK$707.6M
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI37.1
SupportHK$40.44
ResistanceHK$48.84
MA 20HK$44.11
MA 50HK$44.91
MA 200HK$41.33
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.88
Valuation
Fair ValueHK$13.40
Target PriceHK$52.10
Upside/Downside26.69%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield1.14%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.20
Volatility44.01%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskHigh
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.