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9022:TSECentral Japan Railway Company Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-10 - not real-time

¥4,336.00

Latest Price

4/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Central Japan Railway Company (9022.T) is trading at ¥4,336, comfortably above its calculated support of ¥4,153 but still below the resistance ceiling of ¥4,830, suggesting limited upside in the near term. The price sits beneath the 20‑day SMA (¥4,577) and 50‑day SMA (¥4,449) while remaining above the 200‑day SMA (¥3,960), a pattern that aligns with the system’s bullish trend designation despite a short‑term pullback. Technical momentum is mixed: the RSI of 38 points to oversold conditions, yet the MACD histogram is negative and the MACD line sits below the signal, issuing a bearish signal. Fundamentally, the stock appears deeply discounted with a trailing P/E of 8.1 versus an industry average of 29.5, and a P/B of 0.84, indicating that the market values the company at less than its book. Profitability metrics are solid, with an operating margin of 45.6% and a net profit margin of 27.3%, while the dividend yield of 0.75% is supported by a modest 6% payout ratio, underscoring sustainability. However, the balance sheet shows a high debt‑to‑equity ratio of 95.5, and the 30‑day volatility of ~30% combined with a max drawdown of -13.5% signals notable price swings.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price near support with limited upside to resistance
  • Oversold RSI suggests potential bounce
  • Bearish MACD signal tempers upside

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Strong operating margins and cash generation
  • Significant valuation discount vs industry peers
  • Stable dividend with low payout ratio

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • Monopoly‑like position on Tokaido Shinkansen corridor
  • Long‑term demand for rail transport in Japan
  • Undervalued balance sheet despite high leverage

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth7.60%
Profit Margin27.34%
P/E Ratio8.1
ROE11.43%
ROA4.92%
Debt/Equity95.52
P/B Ratio0.8
Industry P/E29.5

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI39.0
Support¥4,153.00
Resistance¥4,830.00
MA 20¥4,577.55
MA 50¥4,448.56
MA 200¥3,959.51
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index76.82

Valuation

Target Price¥4,683.33
Upside/Downside8.01%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield0.75%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.24
Volatility30.51%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.