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8411:TSEMizuho Financial Group, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-09 - not real-time

¥6,176.00

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Mizuho Financial Group (8411.T) is trading at ¥6,176, comfortably above the calculated support of ¥5,995 but still well below the 20‑day SMA of ¥7,021 and the 50‑day SMA of ¥6,647, indicating a short‑term pull‑back within a broader bullish trend. The RSI of 40 suggests the stock is not yet oversold, while a bearish MACD histogram (‑¥130) warns of lingering downside momentum, though volume is increasing, supporting the bullish bias.
Fundamentally, the stock’s trailing P/E of 14.6 is materially lower than the industry average of 17.4, and its price‑to‑book of 1.37 aligns with a value‑oriented profile. Revenue growth of 5.5% and a solid profit margin of 26% underpin the recent “strong nine‑month results” highlighted in the news, while a modest dividend yield of 2.35% and a payout ratio under 35% point to sustainable income.
Given the undervalued valuation, resilient earnings, and a dividend that appears sustainable, the medium‑term outlook is stable, though the high 30‑day volatility (≈ 59%) and potential Bank of Japan rate hikes add caution.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Price near support with increasing volume
  • Bullish trend direction despite bearish MACD
  • Attractive entry relative to SMA levels

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Undervalued valuation metrics (P/E below industry)
  • Stable dividend yield and low payout ratio
  • Potential interest‑rate volatility from BOJ policy

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Consistent earnings growth and solid profit margins
  • Sustainable dividend supporting total return
  • Fundamental undervaluation offering upside potential

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth5.50%
Profit Margin26.13%
P/E Ratio14.6
ROE9.65%
ROA0.36%
P/B Ratio1.4
Industry P/E17.4

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI40.3
Support¥5,995.00
Resistance¥7,960.00
MA 20¥7,021.85
MA 50¥6,646.86
MA 200¥5,150.67
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index75.89

Valuation

Target Price¥6,753.33
Upside/Downside9.35%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield2.35%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.83
Volatility58.79%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.