8227:TSESHIMAMURA Co., Ltd. Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-15 - not real-time
¥3,520.00
Latest Price
8/10Risk
Risk Level: High
Executive Summary
SHIMAMURA Co., Ltd. is trading at ¥3,520, barely above its 30‑day support of ¥3,300 and deep in oversold territory with an RSI of 17.5. The MACD histogram is positive (+129) indicating a nascent bullish signal, while the broader trend remains bearish and volatility is extreme at 317% (30‑day). The market sentiment index sits at 72.9 (Greed), suggesting short‑term buying pressure despite the technical weakness.
Fundamentally, the stock appears undervalued – the DCF‑derived fair value of ¥4,142 is well above the current price, and the forward PE of 6.0 contrasts sharply with a trailing PE of 18.2. The company is debt‑free, generates strong free cash flow (¥30 bn), pays a 1.94% dividend yield with a modest payout ratio of 35%, and posts solid revenue growth of 8.2%. These fundamentals, combined with a stable dividend and ample liquidity, support a longer‑term buying case.
Fundamentally, the stock appears undervalued – the DCF‑derived fair value of ¥4,142 is well above the current price, and the forward PE of 6.0 contrasts sharply with a trailing PE of 18.2. The company is debt‑free, generates strong free cash flow (¥30 bn), pays a 1.94% dividend yield with a modest payout ratio of 35%, and posts solid revenue growth of 8.2%. These fundamentals, combined with a stable dividend and ample liquidity, support a longer‑term buying case.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- RSI indicates oversold conditions
- Price near strong support level
- Bullish MACD histogram despite bearish trend
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- DCF valuation gap suggests upside
- Strong free cash flow and zero debt
- Attractive dividend yield with sustainable payout
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Consistent revenue growth and profitability
- Low leverage and solid balance sheet
- Sector cyclicality and high volatility temper expectations
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth8.20%
Profit Margin6.26%
P/E Ratio18.2
ROE8.54%
ROA6.37%
P/B Ratio1.5
Op. Cash Flow¥54.9B
Free Cash Flow¥30.0B
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI17.5
Support¥3,300.00
Resistance¥11,205.00
MA 20¥4,624.52
MA 50¥8,149.17
MA 200¥9,922.81
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index72.88
Valuation
Fair Value¥4,142.55
Target Price¥3,498.48
Upside/Downside-0.61%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield1.94%
Risk Assessment
Beta-0.09
Volatility317.34%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.