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8035:TSETokyo Electron Ltd. Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-26 - not real-time

¥51,080.00

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Tokyo Electron is trading in a clear bullish environment, with price comfortably above its short‑term and medium‑term moving averages. Momentum indicators show the RSI hovering in the upper‑mid range, suggesting continued buying pressure but approaching overbought levels. The MACD, however, has turned bearish, generating a negative histogram that warns of a possible short‑term correction. Volume trends have been weakening, indicating that the recent rally may be losing steam. Volatility remains elevated, reflecting the sector’s sensitivity to cyclical demand swings. The stock sits near its recent high, with a support zone just below the current level.
Fundamentally, the company delivers robust revenue growth and margin expansion, underpinned by strong cash generation and a balance sheet free of debt. Earnings per share have accelerated, and the payout ratio is modest, supporting a sustainable dividend. Management has announced a sizable share‑repurchase program and an aggressive outlook tied to AI‑driven semiconductor demand. Analyst consensus remains bullish, with a majority rating the stock as a buy. The discounted cash‑flow model suggests a slight upside relative to market price. Overall, the combination of solid fundamentals, attractive shareholder returns, and favorable industry tailwinds positions Tokyo Electron for continued outperformance.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • price near recent high
  • MACD bearish divergence
  • declining volume

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • strong revenue and margin expansion
  • AI‑driven demand pipeline
  • share buyback enhancing shareholder value

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • debt‑free balance sheet with ample cash
  • sustainable dividend supported by cash flow
  • long‑term competitive moat in semiconductor equipment

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth8.60%
Profit Margin23.51%
P/E Ratio40.8
ROE29.27%
ROA14.24%
P/B Ratio11.2
Op. Cash Flow¥539.7B
Free Cash Flow¥229.1B
Industry P/E39.5

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI59.6
Support¥43,980.00
Resistance¥53,870.00
MA 20¥49,053.50
MA 50¥44,142.20
MA 200¥35,001.05
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.8

Valuation

Fair Value¥10,505.03
Target Price¥52,131.82
Upside/Downside2.06%
GradeFair
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield1.38%

Risk Assessment

Beta1.44
Volatility53.64%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.