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7182:TSEJapan Post Bank Co., Ltd. Analysis

Data as of 2026-07-13 - not real-time

¥3,299.00

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

The stock is trading above both the short‑term and mid‑term moving averages, confirming a bullish price trajectory. The MACD line sits above its signal, delivering a bullish momentum signal. Relative strength index is in the upper‑mid range, suggesting continued buying pressure without being overbought. Recent price action respects a clear support level just below the current market price, while the next resistance lies near the recent high. Trading volume has been tapering, indicating a potential slowdown in participation despite the uptrend. Market sentiment is dominated by extreme greed, reinforcing the positive bias.
On the fundamentals side, revenue has expanded sharply year over year, underpinning the bank’s growth story. Operating margins remain healthy, delivering solid profitability even after a modest decline in cash flow. Return on equity has risen to a level that exceeds the company’s own target, supporting confidence in earnings quality. The dividend yield is attractive and the payout ratio sits at a comfortable half, suggesting sustainability. With virtually no net debt and a low beta, the stock exhibits defensive characteristics and limited market‑wide volatility. Compared with peers, the price‑to‑earnings multiple is higher than the sector average, implying that the market has already priced in much of the upside.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • bullish MACD and price above moving averages
  • support level intact despite declining volume
  • positive market sentiment

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • strong revenue growth
  • solid operating margins
  • sustainable dividend

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • valuation already reflects growth
  • regulatory environment may constrain upside
  • stable cash generation supports dividend

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth40.10%
Profit Margin28.97%
P/E Ratio22.2
ROE5.88%
ROA0.24%
P/B Ratio1.3
Op. Cash Flow¥-5084401893376
Industry P/E17.8

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI60.6
Support¥3,031.00
Resistance¥3,402.00
MA 20¥3,190.45
MA 50¥3,079.54
MA 200¥2,488.13
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index90.79

Valuation

Target Price¥3,478.00
Upside/Downside5.43%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.82%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.63
Volatility32.78%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.