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7182:TSEJapan Post Bank Co., Ltd. Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-10 - not real-time

¥2,744.00

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Japan Post Bank posted a 7% revenue growth and a solid operating margin of 43%, supporting a trailing EPS of 120.2 JPY and a dividend yield of 2.6% with a payout ratio under 50%, indicating a sustainable income stream. However, its forward PE of 22.8 sits well above the industry average of 17.4, suggesting the stock is priced on optimism rather than fundamentals.
Technical indicators show the price trading above the 20‑day (2958) and 50‑day (2667) SMAs, confirming a bullish trend, while the RSI at ~46 points to neutral momentum and the MACD histogram remains negative, hinting at short‑term downside pressure. Support around 2602 JPY and resistance near 3170 JPY frame the upside potential, and a low beta of 0.2 signals limited price swing relative to the market.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price above short‑term SMAs indicating bullish bias
  • Negative MACD histogram suggesting possible pull‑back
  • Stable trading volume and low beta limiting downside

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Sustained earnings growth and solid operating margins
  • Attractive dividend yield with comfortable payout ratio
  • Support level well above recent lows providing downside cushion

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Strong balance sheet with negligible debt‑to‑equity
  • Government‑backed parent company reducing credit risk
  • Low beta and consistent dividend make it a defensive hold

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth7.00%
Profit Margin27.07%
P/E Ratio22.8
ROE5.31%
ROA0.21%
P/B Ratio1.0
Industry P/E17.4

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI45.7
Support¥2,602.00
Resistance¥3,169.00
MA 20¥2,958.45
MA 50¥2,666.66
MA 200¥1,966.74
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index80.39

Valuation

Target Price¥2,732.73
Upside/Downside-0.41%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.61%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.64
Volatility47.60%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.