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6952:TSECasio Computer Co., Ltd. Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-17 - not real-time

NT$40.05

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Dawushan Farm Technology is trading at TWD 40.05, comfortably above its 20‑day SMA of 42.01 and 50‑day SMA of 42.73, yet still below the 200‑day SMA of 45.65, indicating a lingering bearish bias. The RSI of 32.4 and a bearish MACD histogram reinforce downside momentum, while the price sits just above the technical support of 38.95 and well under the resistance at 45.00. Fundamentally, the company reports a negative trailing EPS of -1.08, a profit margin of -4.2% and a high debt‑to‑equity ratio of 76.3%, suggesting financial strain despite an impressive revenue growth of 87%.
The dividend yield appears attractive at 4.99% with a payout ratio of 68.5%, but the sustainability is doubtful given negative earnings, modest free cash flow of TWD 48.2 million and a substantial debt load of TWD 1.35 billion. Moreover, the DCF‑derived fair value of TWD 9.42 is far below the current market price, flagging the stock as potentially overvalued. High 30‑day volatility (≈25.7%) and a max drawdown of -25.9% add to the risk profile, while the low beta (~0.44) suggests limited market‑wide correlation.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Cautious
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish technical indicators (RSI, MACD, price below SMA200)
  • Negative earnings and high debt burden
  • Price near support with limited upside to resistance

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Attractive dividend yield if earnings improve
  • Potential stabilization in consumer‑defensive sector
  • Uncertainty around earnings turnaround and debt reduction

Long Term

> 3 years
Cautious
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Significant overvaluation versus DCF fair value
  • Unsustainable dividend given negative profitability
  • High leverage and weak cash generation

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth87.10%
Profit Margin-4.16%
ROE-3.82%
ROA0.56%
Debt/Equity76.32
P/B Ratio2.7
Op. Cash FlowNT$120.9M
Free Cash FlowNT$48.2M

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI32.4
SupportNT$38.95
ResistanceNT$45.00
MA 20NT$42.01
MA 50NT$42.73
MA 200NT$45.65
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index79.45

Valuation

Fair ValueNT$9.42
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield4.99%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.44
Volatility25.73%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskHigh

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.