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601919:SSECOSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co., Ltd. Class A Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-15 - not real-time

CN¥15.78

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

COSCO SHIPPING Holdings trades at a trailing P/E of 5, dramatically below the industry average of 29, and its price of CNY 15.78 sits roughly 15% under the DCF‑derived fair value of 18.40. The stock enjoys a high dividend yield of 10.08% with a payout ratio near 50%, supported by solid operating cash flow and a cash‑to‑debt cushion where cash exceeds debt by more than CNY 95 billion. Technicals are modestly bullish – the price is above the 20‑day SMA, the MACD line is above its signal, and the RSI sits at 57, while volume is increasing, suggesting short‑term upward momentum toward the CNY 16.98 resistance. However, revenue has contracted by 20% year‑over‑year, and the sector remains cyclical with elevated 30‑day volatility of roughly 40%, tempering expectations for immediate earnings acceleration.
Overall, the combination of deep value metrics, strong dividend income, low market beta, and a sizable upside target supports a value‑oriented buy thesis, provided investors are comfortable with the sector’s cyclicality and the near‑term earnings dip.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish MACD and rising volume indicating near‑term price strength
  • Significant upside to the identified resistance level
  • Low beta reducing market‑wide volatility exposure

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Substantial dividend yield providing cash return while waiting for earnings recovery
  • DCF‑based valuation suggesting ~15% upside
  • Strong balance sheet with cash far exceeding debt

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Cyclical nature of marine shipping may delay sustainable earnings growth
  • Revenue contraction of 20% raises concerns about longer‑term demand
  • Value cushion and dividend income mitigate downside risk

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-20.40%
Profit Margin16.78%
P/E Ratio5.0
ROE15.47%
ROA5.37%
Debt/Equity26.97
P/B Ratio1.1
Op. Cash FlowCN¥57.6B
Free Cash FlowCN¥13.8B
Industry P/E29.1

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI57.9
SupportCN¥14.30
ResistanceCN¥16.98
MA 20CN¥15.24
MA 50CN¥14.92
MA 200CN¥15.26
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.88

Valuation

Fair ValueCN¥18.40
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield10.08%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.27
Volatility39.99%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.