601898:SSEChina Coal Energy Co. Ltd. Class A Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-03 - not real-time
CN¥17.10
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
China Coal Energy trades around CNY 17.1, just above its 20‑day SMA (16.35) and essentially at the 50‑day SMA (17.10), while the 14‑day RSI sits at a neutral 55 and the MACD histogram is positive, indicating a modest short‑term bullish tilt. Volume is rising and the stock holds a solid support at CNY 15.03 with resistance near CNY 18.21, but the 30‑day volatility is extreme at over 50% and the DCF‑derived fair value (CNY 13.2) is well below the market price, suggesting the shares are priced for optimism.
Fundamentally, revenue fell 11% YoY, yet the Q1 2026 earnings call notes a 40% price surge in coal‑chemical products that is bolstering margins. The company enjoys a strong cash position (CNY 88.4 bn) that exceeds total debt (CNY 72.8 bn), a respectable ROE of 10.7%, a dividend yield of 2.6% with a 39% payout ratio, and a PE of 15.7 versus the industry average of 21.4, indicating relative value despite the DCF gap.
Fundamentally, revenue fell 11% YoY, yet the Q1 2026 earnings call notes a 40% price surge in coal‑chemical products that is bolstering margins. The company enjoys a strong cash position (CNY 88.4 bn) that exceeds total debt (CNY 72.8 bn), a respectable ROE of 10.7%, a dividend yield of 2.6% with a 39% payout ratio, and a PE of 15.7 versus the industry average of 21.4, indicating relative value despite the DCF gap.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Bullish MACD histogram and rising volume
- Price near key support and resistance levels
- Overvaluation relative to DCF fair value
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Improving coal‑chemical pricing boosting margins
- Attractive dividend yield and solid cash balance
- PE advantage versus industry peers
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Long‑term regulatory and environmental headwinds for coal
- Sustained dividend payout supported by cash reserves
- Potential sector transition risk offset by diversified operations
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-10.90%
Profit Margin12.34%
P/E Ratio15.7
ROE10.68%
ROA4.34%
Debt/Equity35.58
P/B Ratio1.4
Op. Cash FlowCN¥35.2B
Free Cash FlowCN¥12.1B
Industry P/E21.4
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI54.9
SupportCN¥15.03
ResistanceCN¥18.21
MA 20CN¥16.35
MA 50CN¥17.10
MA 200CN¥14.36
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index92.71
Valuation
Fair ValueCN¥13.19
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.59%
Risk Assessment
Beta-0.14
Volatility51.79%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.