601878:SSEZheshang Securities Co. Ltd. Class A Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-14 - not real-time
CN¥10.27
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Zheshang Securities is trading at CNY 10.27, well below its DCF‑derived fair value of roughly CNY 14.45, suggesting a material discount. However, the stock sits under its 20‑day (10.49), 50‑day (10.74) and 200‑day (11.14) moving averages, the 14‑day RSI is at 36 (near‑oversold) and the MACD remains bearish, indicating short‑term pressure toward the support level around CNY 10.14.
Fundamentally, the firm delivers modest profitability (ROE 7.7%, profit margin 13.8%) and a low payout ratio (≈26%) supporting the 1.66% dividend yield, but its capital structure is strained with a debt‑to‑equity of 183 × and a beta under 0.2, implying limited price volatility. The market sentiment is in “greed” mode (Fear‑Greed Index 72.9), yet regulatory and geographic headwinds in China’s financial sector temper enthusiasm.
Fundamentally, the firm delivers modest profitability (ROE 7.7%, profit margin 13.8%) and a low payout ratio (≈26%) supporting the 1.66% dividend yield, but its capital structure is strained with a debt‑to‑equity of 183 × and a beta under 0.2, implying limited price volatility. The market sentiment is in “greed” mode (Fear‑Greed Index 72.9), yet regulatory and geographic headwinds in China’s financial sector temper enthusiasm.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price testing support near CNY 10.14
- Bearish MACD and price below short‑term SMAs
- Increasing volume offering limited upside
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- DCF valuation gap (~CNY 4.2 discount)
- Sustainable dividend payout
- Low beta and improving market sentiment
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- High debt‑to‑equity ratio limiting growth
- Regulatory uncertainty in China’s capital‑markets sector
- Modest ROE and flat revenue growth
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Profit Margin13.84%
P/E Ratio18.0
ROE7.68%
ROA1.61%
Debt/Equity183.19
P/B Ratio1.3
Op. Cash FlowCN¥3.7B
Industry P/E16.4
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI36.0
SupportCN¥10.14
ResistanceCN¥10.75
MA 20CN¥10.49
MA 50CN¥10.74
MA 200CN¥11.14
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.88
Valuation
Fair ValueCN¥14.45
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield1.66%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.17
Volatility12.42%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.