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601825:SSEShanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd Class A Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-17 - not real-time

CN¥8.93

Latest Price

3/10Risk

Risk Level: Low

Executive Summary

Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank trades around CNY 8.93, well below its DCF‑derived fair value of roughly CNY 35, implying a deep discount. The stock benefits from a low trailing PE of about 7× earnings and a sub‑1× price‑to‑book multiple, both markedly cheaper than the industry PE average of 16.5. Dividend yield sits near 4.9% with a modest payout ratio of 34%, suggesting the current payout is comfortably supported by cash flow. Technicals show a bearish price trend yet a bullish MACD crossover and an RSI of 65, indicating momentum may be shifting upward as price approaches the resistance near CNY 8.96. Volume is on an increasing trend, providing liquidity, while the beta of roughly 0.06 signals minimal market‑wide volatility exposure. Overall, the combination of strong valuation upside, solid dividend profile, and improving technical momentum makes the stock attractive for investors seeking value and income.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price near resistance with bearish trend direction
  • Bullish MACD signal and rising volume
  • High dividend yield offering short‑term income

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Valuation gap between market price and DCF fair value
  • Sustainable dividend payout and low payout ratio
  • Technical momentum shift indicated by MACD and RSI

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • Fundamentally strong earnings yield and low price‑to‑book
  • Stable cash generation relative to debt levels
  • Long‑term upside potential if Chinese regional banking sector stabilises

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-2.90%
Profit Margin52.30%
P/E Ratio7.0
ROE10.01%
ROA0.84%
P/B Ratio0.7
Op. Cash FlowCN¥42.0B
Industry P/E16.5

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI65.3
SupportCN¥8.27
ResistanceCN¥8.96
MA 20CN¥8.54
MA 50CN¥8.68
MA 200CN¥9.05
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index81.27

Valuation

Fair ValueCN¥34.93
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield4.88%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.06
Volatility19.38%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.