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4704:TSETrend Micro Incorporated Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-18 - not real-time

¥5,905.00

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Trend Micro is trading at roughly ¥5,905, translating to a trailing P/E of 21, well below the software‑infrastructure industry average of 38, which points to a clear undervaluation. The company enjoys a massive cash pile of over ¥228 bn, carries no debt, and offers a 3.34% dividend yield with a payout ratio around 70%, suggesting the dividend is sustainable. Technically, the MACD line sits above its signal line (bullish) and the RSI is at 59, indicating momentum is still positive. The stock sits above its 20‑day SMA (¥5,660) and 50‑day SMA (¥5,462), with support around ¥5,226 and resistance near ¥6,294, while volatility remains high at 50% but beta is modest at 0.42.
Recent strategic moves bolster the outlook. The launch of TrendAI’s partnership with Anthropic to embed advanced AI models, along with the consumer‑focused TrendLife offering, adds credible growth catalysts. Revenue is expanding at 9.4% year‑over‑year with a robust gross margin of 77%, positioning the firm as a blend of value and growth in the cybersecurity space.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish MACD crossover indicating upward momentum
  • Attractive dividend yield with sustainable payout
  • Price positioned above short‑term moving averages with upside to resistance

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Strategic AI partnership with Anthropic expanding product suite
  • Solid revenue growth and high gross margins
  • Strong cash position and zero debt supporting continued investment

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Sustainable dividend and robust cash generation
  • Mature cybersecurity market with competitive pressures
  • Valuation still reflects a value tilt with limited upside beyond current levels

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth9.40%
Profit Margin13.26%
P/E Ratio21.2
ROE33.82%
ROA9.57%
P/B Ratio6.7
Industry P/E38.2

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI59.5
Support¥5,226.00
Resistance¥6,294.00
MA 20¥5,660.15
MA 50¥5,462.34
MA 200¥6,938.97
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.61

Valuation

Target Price¥6,193.75
Upside/Downside4.89%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield3.34%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.42
Volatility50.18%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.