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4684:TSEOBIC Co., Ltd. Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-14 - not real-time

¥4,004.00

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

OBIC Co.,Ltd. is trading below its 20‑day moving average but above its 200‑day moving average, a pattern that reinforces the prevailing bearish bias. The 14‑day RSI sits in the mid‑range, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions, while the MACD histogram has turned positive, hinting at a potential short‑term bounce. Volume trends are slipping, which adds pressure to the downside, yet the company’s dividend yield remains modest and the payout ratio stays comfortably below half of earnings, supporting dividend sustainability.
Recent earnings commentary highlighted double‑digit revenue growth and a continued focus on shareholder returns, aligning with the current valuation gap between market price and discounted cash‑flow estimate, and pointing to upside potential if momentum shifts.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish alignment of short‑term moving averages
  • Decreasing volume adds pressure
  • Dividend payout remains sustainable

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Strong revenue growth and high operating margins
  • Potential upside relative to discounted cash‑flow valuation
  • Consistent cash generation supports future dividends

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Zero net debt and robust free cash flow
  • Established market position in Japanese enterprise software
  • Long‑term dividend policy enhances total return

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth12.40%
Profit Margin54.86%
P/E Ratio25.2
ROE16.00%
ROA10.15%
P/B Ratio3.6
Op. Cash Flow¥70.6B
Free Cash Flow¥56.9B
Industry P/E33.7

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI45.0
Support¥3,700.00
Resistance¥4,220.00
MA 20¥3,987.70
MA 50¥4,320.88
MA 200¥4,995.16
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.88

Valuation

Fair Value¥3,456.37
Target Price¥4,879.17
Upside/Downside21.86%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.10%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.14
Volatility51.11%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.