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4272:TSENippon Kayaku Co., Ltd. Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-17 - not real-time

¥1,809.50

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Nippon Kayaku is trading near its 20‑day SMA (≈1,896) with a current price of ¥1,809, just above the identified support at ¥1,797. The technical picture is mixed: the 30‑day volatility of ~26% and a decreasing volume trend suggest caution, while the overall trend is flagged as bullish and the RSI sits at roughly 42, indicating neutral momentum. However, the MACD histogram is sharply negative (‑19) and the MACD signal is bearish, pointing to short‑term downside pressure. Fundamentally, the stock appears attractively priced with a trailing P/E of about 12, a P/B near 1, and a dividend yield of 3.3% backed by a payout ratio under 50%. The company posted a nine‑month net profit of ¥17.3 billion versus ¥13.3 billion a year earlier, evidencing solid earnings growth despite modest revenue expansion (~3.7%). Balance sheet considerations show a high debt‑to‑equity ratio (~19.4) but ample cash reserves comparable to total debt, mitigating immediate solvency concerns.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price near support and below short‑term moving averages
  • Bearish MACD histogram indicating near‑term downside
  • Decreasing volume reducing immediate upside momentum

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Undervalued valuation metrics (P/E ~12, P/B ~1)
  • Strong dividend yield with sustainable payout
  • Improving earnings momentum from recent profit acceleration

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Low beta (~0.25) suggesting limited market volatility exposure
  • Diversified chemicals and life‑sciences portfolio with stable cash generation
  • Attractive dividend income and potential for incremental growth in specialty chemicals

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth3.70%
Profit Margin9.39%
P/E Ratio12.4
ROE7.91%
ROA2.97%
Debt/Equity19.44
P/B Ratio1.0

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI42.4
Support¥1,797.00
Resistance¥2,018.50
MA 20¥1,896.23
MA 50¥1,827.69
MA 200¥1,523.10
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index79.45

Valuation

GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield3.32%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.25
Volatility26.48%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.